The 3-3-0 New England Patriots host the 2-4-0 Chicago Bears at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. The Patriots have a point spread of -9 with a money line of -370. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 40 points.
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Chicago Bears (+9)Record: 2-4-0 |
New England Patriots (-9)Record: 3-3-0 |
New England Patriots Offense:
The Patriots are coached by Bill Belichick who has been with the team since 2000. They have a current season record of 3-3-0 after going 10-7 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Bill Belichick is no different.
Bailey Zappe is the quarterback for the Patriots. The 23-year-old Western Kentucky alum entered the league in 2022 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 2 games and thrown for 596 yards with a completion percentage of 72.9 percent. Bailey Zappe has thrown 4 touchdowns despite 1 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 111.4.
His main target will be Jakobi Meyers. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 26-year-old target. He has made 24 receptions to date on 31 targets, a catch percentage of 77.4%, for a total of 321 yards. Jakobi Meyers is averaging 13.4 yards per catch with 1 touchdowns thus far. Bailey Zappe will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Patriots running game is lead by the 24-year-old Rhamondre Stevenson. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 87 carries and rushed for 448 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 74.7 YPG, a number that you know Bill Belichick would love to see him exceed in this game. Rhamondre Stevenson has 3 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.
Overall, the New England Patriots offense ranks 22 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -3.5%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 21 with a Passing DVOA of -0.7%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 8.8%, ranking #18 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.45 with 9 Red Zone touchdowns in 20 attempts.
New England Patriots Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Patriots have a Defense DVOA of -9.2%, ranking 7 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #9 at -2.9% and they’ll need them to show up against Justin Fields. The Bill Belichick-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -2.9%, #6 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Nick Folk who has made 10 of 12 field goals this season, a 83.3% field goal percentage, with a long of 50 yards. The New England Patriots fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Chicago Bears Offense:
The Bears are on the road for this one. Matt Eberflus’s squad is 2-4-0 this season after going 6-11 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Chicago Bears have a betting line of +9 or you could bet them straight up at 300.
23-year-old Justin Fields will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2021 after playing his college days at Ohio State. Justin Fields has a quarterback rating of 72.7 on 4 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. He’s started 6 games and thrown for 869yards, a completion percentage of 54.8.
David Montgomery is the lead back for the Bears running game. The 25-year-old has taken 62 carries and rushed for 246 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 49.2 YPG and he has scored 1 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.
On the passing front, Justin Fields will look to target Darnell Mooney against the Matt Eberflus defense. Darnell Mooney has 0 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 33 times and made 17 catches for 241 yards. Darnell Mooney has a catch percentage of 51.5% and his yards per reception is 14.2.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Chicago Bears offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -22.0% which ranks at number 30 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -14.7%, the number 30 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 31 with a Rush DVOA total of -24.6%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 7 Red Zone touchdowns on 15 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.467.
Chicago Bears Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Cairo Santos to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 51 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Cairo Santos has made 7 field goals on 51 attempts, a field goal percentage of 100.0%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Bears with a Defensive DVOA of 4.5% which ranks at 19/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #9 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -2.9%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 1.1% DVOA which ranks at #6.
Key Match-ups:
- Bailey Zappe QB Rating of 111.4 vs. Chicago Bears Pass DVOA Defense of -14.7%
The Bears have 5 interceptions this year and 11 sacks. They are allowing 19.7 points per game. - Rhamondre Stevenson vs. Chicago Bears number 31 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 4.8 yards per carry against the the Chicago Bears and 163 per game. - Justin Fields QB Rating of 72.7 vs. New England Patriots #9 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Patriots defense has allowed 18.8 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 17 times and picked him off 6 times. - David Montgomery vs. New England Patriots -16.8% DVOA Rush Defense
The Patriots are giving up 119 YPG on 4.7 per carry thus far this season.
Bears/Patriots Bettting Stats:
Bears Against the spread: 2-3-1
Bears Over/Under: 2-4-0
Patriots Against the spread: 3-2-1
Patriots Over/Under: 3-3-0
The best bet is New England Patriots -9 and Under 40.