The 5-1-0 Buffalo Bills host the 3-4-0 Green Bay Packers at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. The Bills have a point spread of -11.0 with a money line of -520. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 47.5 points.
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Green Bay Packers (+11.0)Record: 3-4-0 |
Buffalo Bills (-11.0)Record: 5-1-0 |
Buffalo Bills Offense:
The Bills are coached by Sean McDermott who has been with the team since 2017. They have a current season record of 5-1-0 after going 11-6 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Sean McDermott is no different.
Josh Allen is the quarterback for the Bills. The 26-year-old Wyoming alum entered the league in 2018 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 6 games and thrown for 1980 yards with a completion percentage of 66.9 percent. Josh Allen has thrown 17 touchdowns despite 4 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 109.1.
His main target will be Stefon Diggs. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 29-year-old target. He has made 49 receptions to date on 65 targets, a catch percentage of 75.4%, for a total of 656 yards. Stefon Diggs is averaging 13.4 yards per catch with 6 touchdowns thus far. Josh Allen will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Bills running game is lead by the 25-year-old Devin Singletary. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 57 carries and rushed for 256 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 42.7 YPG, a number that you know Sean McDermott would love to see him exceed in this game. Devin Singletary has 0 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.
Overall, the Buffalo Bills offense ranks 2 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 20.4%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 2 with a Passing DVOA of 14.7%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 47.4%, ranking #1 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.545 with 12 Red Zone touchdowns in 22 attempts.
Buffalo Bills Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Bills have a Defense DVOA of -21.6%, ranking 1 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #1 at -12.1% and they’ll need them to show up against Aaron Rodgers. The Sean McDermott-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -12.1%, #4 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Tyler Bass who has made 9 of 11 field goals this season, a 81.8% field goal percentage, with a long of 49 yards. The Buffalo Bills fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Green Bay Packers Offense:
The Packers are on the road for this one. Matt LaFleur’s squad is 3-4-0 this season after going 13-4 last year. He has been at the helm since 2019 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Green Bay Packers have a betting line of +11.0 or you could bet them straight up at 415.
39-year-old Aaron Rodgers will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2005 after playing his college days at California. Aaron Rodgers has a quarterback rating of 94.9 on 11 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He’s started 7 games and thrown for 1597yards, a completion percentage of 66.8.
Aaron Jones is the lead back for the Packers running game. The 28-year-old has taken 78 carries and rushed for 432 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 61.7 YPG and he has scored 1 touchdowns with 1 fumbles.
On the passing front, Aaron Rodgers will look to target Allen Lazard against the Matt LaFleur defense. Allen Lazard has 4 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 41 times and made 26 catches for 340 yards. Allen Lazard has a catch percentage of 63.4% and his yards per reception is 13.1.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Green Bay Packers offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 7.1% which ranks at number 10 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 8.3%, the number 4 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 14 with a Rush DVOA total of 14.9%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 12 Red Zone touchdowns on 20 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.6.
Green Bay Packers Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Mason Crosby to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 48 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Mason Crosby has made 7 field goals on 48 attempts, a field goal percentage of 87.5%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Packers with a Defensive DVOA of 5.8% which ranks at 25/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #1 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -12.1%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 3.1% DVOA which ranks at #4.
Key Match-ups:
- Josh Allen QB Rating of 109.1 vs. Green Bay Packers Pass DVOA Defense of 8.3%
The Packers have 2 interceptions this year and 15 sacks. They are allowing 20.9 points per game. - Devin Singletary vs. Green Bay Packers number 14 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 4.8 yards per carry against the the Green Bay Packers and 139.6 per game. - Aaron Rodgers QB Rating of 94.9 vs. Buffalo Bills #1 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Bills defense has allowed 13.5 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 19 times and picked him off 10 times. - Aaron Jones vs. Buffalo Bills -20.8% DVOA Rush Defense
The Bills are giving up 76.2 YPG on 3.5 per carry thus far this season.
Packers/Bills Bettting Stats:
Packers Against the spread: 2-5-0
Packers Over/Under: 3-4-0
Bills Against the spread: 4-2-0
Bills Over/Under: 1-5-0
The best bet is Buffalo Bills -11.0 and Under 47.5.