Commanders vs. Colts: Week 8 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 26 October 2022

The 3-3-1 Indianapolis Colts host the 3-4-0 Washington Commanders at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana. The Colts have a point spread of -3.0 with a money line of -150. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 40 points.

Washington Commanders Indianapolis Colts

Washington Commanders (+3.0)

Record: 3-4-0
Points Per Game: 17.9
Points Allowed Per Game: 22.3

Indianapolis Colts (-3.0)

Record: 3-3-1
Points Per Game: 16.1
Points Allowed Per Game: 20

Indianapolis Colts Offense:

The Colts are coached by Frank Reich who has been with the team since 2018. They have a current season record of 3-3-1 after going 9-8 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Frank Reich is no different.

Matt Ryan is the quarterback for the Colts. The 37-year-old Boston College alum entered the league in 2008 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 7 games and thrown for 2008 yards with a completion percentage of 68.4 percent. Matt Ryan has thrown 9 touchdowns despite 9 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 84.7.

His main target will be Michael Pittman Jr.. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 25-year-old target. He has made 44 receptions to date on 61 targets, a catch percentage of 72.1%, for a total of 475 yards. Michael Pittman Jr. is averaging 10.8 yards per catch with 1 touchdowns thus far. Matt Ryan will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Colts running game is lead by the 23-year-old Jonathan Taylor. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 91 carries and rushed for 386 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 77.2 YPG, a number that you know Frank Reich would love to see him exceed in this game. Jonathan Taylor has 1 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.

Overall, the Indianapolis Colts offense ranks 32 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -26.8%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 32 with a Passing DVOA of -14.5%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -20.2%, ranking #30 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.5 with 10 Red Zone touchdowns in 20 attempts.

Indianapolis Colts Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Colts have a Defense DVOA of -2.3%, ranking 11 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #16 at -0.2% and they’ll need them to show up against Taylor Heinicke. The Frank Reich-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -0.2%, #16 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Rodrigo Blankenship who has made 4 of 5 field goals this season, a 80.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 50 yards. The Indianapolis Colts fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Washington Commanders Offense:

The Commanders are on the road for this one. Ron Rivera’s squad is 3-4-0 this season after going 7-10 last year. He has been at the helm since 2020 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Washington Commanders have a betting line of +3.0 or you could bet them straight up at 130.

29-year-old Taylor Heinicke will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2015 after playing his college days at Old Dominion. Taylor Heinicke has a quarterback rating of 85.5 on 2 touchdowns and 1 interceptions. He’s started 1 games and thrown for 201yards, a completion percentage of 60.6.

Antonio Gibson is the lead back for the Commanders running game. The 24-year-old has taken 71 carries and rushed for 273 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 39 YPG and he has scored 2 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.

On the passing front, Taylor Heinicke will look to target Terry McLaurin against the Ron Rivera defense. Terry McLaurin has 2 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 45 times and made 27 catches for 440 yards. Terry McLaurin has a catch percentage of 60.0% and his yards per reception is 16.3.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Washington Commanders offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -16.7% which ranks at number 28 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -14.0%, the number 30 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 29 with a Rush DVOA total of -7.9%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 9 Red Zone touchdowns on 18 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.5.

Washington Commanders Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Joey Slye to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 50 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Joey Slye has made 7 field goals on 50 attempts, a field goal percentage of 77.8%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Commanders with a Defensive DVOA of 1.2% which ranks at 16/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #16 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -0.2%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -0.3% DVOA which ranks at #16.

Key Match-ups:

  • Matt Ryan QB Rating of 84.7 vs. Washington Commanders Pass DVOA Defense of -14.0%
    The Commanders have 2 interceptions this year and 19 sacks. They are allowing 22.3 points per game.
  • Jonathan Taylor vs. Washington Commanders number 29 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 4.5 yards per carry against the the Washington Commanders and 118.3 per game.
  • Taylor Heinicke QB Rating of 85.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts #16 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Colts defense has allowed 20 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 17 times and picked him off 3 times.
  • Antonio Gibson vs. Indianapolis Colts 8.4% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Colts are giving up 123.4 YPG on 4.1 per carry thus far this season.

Commanders/Colts Bettting Stats:

Commanders Against the spread: 3-4-0
Commanders Over/Under: 3-4-0

Colts Against the spread: 3-4-0
Colts Over/Under: 1-6-0

The best bet is Washington Commanders +3.0 and Under 40.