The 3-3-0 Los Angeles Rams host the 3-4-0 San Francisco 49ers at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. The Rams have a point spread of +1.0 with a money line of 105. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 43.5 points.
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San Francisco 49ers (-1.0)Record: 3-4-0 |
Los Angeles Rams (+1.0)Record: 3-3-0 |
Los Angeles Rams Offense:
The Rams are coached by Sean McVay who has been with the team since 2017. They have a current season record of 3-3-0 after going 12-5 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Sean McVay is no different.
Matthew Stafford is the quarterback for the Rams. The 34-year-old Georgia alum entered the league in 2009 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 6 games and thrown for 1576 yards with a completion percentage of 71.1 percent. Matthew Stafford has thrown 6 touchdowns despite 8 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 84.6.
His main target will be Cooper Kupp. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 29-year-old target. He has made 56 receptions to date on 72 targets, a catch percentage of 77.8%, for a total of 607 yards. Cooper Kupp is averaging 10.8 yards per catch with 4 touchdowns thus far. Matthew Stafford will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Rams running game is lead by the 23-year-old Cam Akers. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 51 carries and rushed for 151 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 30.2 YPG, a number that you know Sean McVay would love to see him exceed in this game. Cam Akers has 1 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.
Overall, the Los Angeles Rams offense ranks 25 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -10.5%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 20 with a Passing DVOA of -0.9%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -0.5%, ranking #24 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.474 with 9 Red Zone touchdowns in 19 attempts.
Los Angeles Rams Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Rams have a Defense DVOA of -7.4%, ranking 8 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #5 at -5.6% and they’ll need them to show up against Jimmy Garoppolo. The Sean McVay-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -5.6%, #14 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Matt Gay who has made 9 of 10 field goals this season, a 90.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 57 yards. The Los Angeles Rams fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
San Francisco 49ers Offense:
The 49ers are on the road for this one. Kyle Shanahan’s squad is 3-4-0 this season after going 10-7 last year. He has been at the helm since 2017 and is looking to grab a road win here. The San Francisco 49ers have a betting line of -1.0 or you could bet them straight up at -125.
31-year-old Jimmy Garoppolo will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2014 after playing his college days at Eastern Illinois University. Jimmy Garoppolo has a quarterback rating of 95.7 on 9 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He’s started 5 games and thrown for 1456yards, a completion percentage of 64.3.
Elijah Mitchell is the lead back for the 49ers running game. The 24-year-old has taken 6 carries and rushed for 41 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 41 YPG and he has scored 0 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.
On the passing front, Jimmy Garoppolo will look to target Deebo Samuel against the Kyle Shanahan defense. Deebo Samuel has 2 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 54 times and made 32 catches for 387 yards. Deebo Samuel has a catch percentage of 59.3% and his yards per reception is 12.1.
According to FootballOutsiders, the San Francisco 49ers offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 0.2% which ranks at number 17 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 0.3%, the number 17 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 11 with a Rush DVOA total of 17.8%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 12 Red Zone touchdowns on 22 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.545.
San Francisco 49ers Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Robbie Gould to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 51 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Robbie Gould has made 9 field goals on 51 attempts, a field goal percentage of 75.0%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the 49ers with a Defensive DVOA of -7.4% which ranks at 7/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #5 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -5.6%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -4.3% DVOA which ranks at #14.
Key Match-ups:
- Matthew Stafford QB Rating of 84.6 vs. San Francisco 49ers Pass DVOA Defense of 0.3%
The 49ers have 6 interceptions this year and 24 sacks. They are allowing 19 points per game. - Cam Akers vs. San Francisco 49ers number 11 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 3.5 yards per carry against the the San Francisco 49ers and 91 per game. - Jimmy Garoppolo QB Rating of 95.7 vs. Los Angeles Rams #5 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Rams defense has allowed 21 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 12 times and picked him off 5 times. - Elijah Mitchell vs. Los Angeles Rams 2.4% DVOA Rush Defense
The Rams are giving up 104.2 YPG on 4.2 per carry thus far this season.
49ers/Rams Bettting Stats:
49ers Against the spread: 3-4-0
49ers Over/Under: 2-5-0
Rams Against the spread: 2-4-0
Rams Over/Under: 1-5-0
The best bet is San Francisco 49ers -1.0 and Under 43.5.