The 2-4-0 Washington Commanders host the 3-3-0 Green Bay Packers at FedExField in Landover, Maryland. The Commanders have a point spread of +5 with a money line of 180. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 41.5 points.
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Green Bay Packers (-5)Record: 3-3-0 |
Washington Commanders (+5)Record: 2-4-0 |
Washington Commanders Offense:
The Commanders are coached by Ron Rivera who has been with the team since 2020. They have a current season record of 2-4-0 after going 7-10 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Ron Rivera is no different.
Taylor Heinicke is the quarterback for the Commanders. The 29-year-old Old Dominion alum entered the league in 2015 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started games and thrown for yards with a completion percentage of percent. Taylor Heinicke has thrown touchdowns despite interceptions and has a QB Rating of .
His main target will be Terry McLaurin. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 27-year-old target. He has made 22 receptions to date on 37 targets, a catch percentage of 59.5%, for a total of 367 yards. Terry McLaurin is averaging 16.7 yards per catch with 1 touchdowns thus far. Taylor Heinicke will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Commanders running game is lead by the 24-year-old Antonio Gibson. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 61 carries and rushed for 214 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 35.7 YPG, a number that you know Ron Rivera would love to see him exceed in this game. Antonio Gibson has 2 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.
Overall, the Washington Commanders offense ranks 29 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -19.1%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 31 with a Passing DVOA of -14.9%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -11.2%, ranking #29 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.571 with 8 Red Zone touchdowns in 14 attempts.
Washington Commanders Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Commanders have a Defense DVOA of -0.3%, ranking 11 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #15 at -1.0% and they’ll need them to show up against Aaron Rodgers. The Ron Rivera-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -1.0%, #19 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Joey Slye who has made 4 of 5 field goals this season, a 80.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 50 yards. The Washington Commanders fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Green Bay Packers Offense:
The Packers are on the road for this one. Matt LaFleur’s squad is 3-3-0 this season after going 13-4 last year. He has been at the helm since 2019 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Green Bay Packers have a betting line of -5 or you could bet them straight up at -210.
39-year-old Aaron Rodgers will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2005 after playing his college days at California. Aaron Rodgers has a quarterback rating of 94.2 on 9 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He’s started 6 games and thrown for 1403yards, a completion percentage of 67.
Aaron Jones is the lead back for the Packers running game. The 28-year-old has taken 70 carries and rushed for 409 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 68.2 YPG and he has scored 1 touchdowns with 1 fumbles.
On the passing front, Aaron Rodgers will look to target Allen Lazard against the Matt LaFleur defense. Allen Lazard has 4 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 34 times and made 20 catches for 285 yards. Allen Lazard has a catch percentage of 58.8% and his yards per reception is 14.3.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Green Bay Packers offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 6.5% which ranks at number 10 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 8.3%, the number 5 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 16 with a Rush DVOA total of 11.4%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 11 Red Zone touchdowns on 19 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.579.
Green Bay Packers Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Mason Crosby to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 48 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Mason Crosby has made 7 field goals on 48 attempts, a field goal percentage of 87.5%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Packers with a Defensive DVOA of 7.2% which ranks at 24/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #15 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -1.0%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 3.3% DVOA which ranks at #19.
Key Match-ups:
- Taylor Heinicke QB Rating of vs. Green Bay Packers Pass DVOA Defense of 8.3%
The Packers have 1 interceptions this year and 14 sacks. They are allowing 20.5 points per game. - Antonio Gibson vs. Green Bay Packers number 16 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 4.9 yards per carry against the the Green Bay Packers and 135.2 per game. - Aaron Rodgers QB Rating of 94.2 vs. Washington Commanders #15 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Commanders defense has allowed 22.5 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 19 times and picked him off 2 times. - Aaron Jones vs. Washington Commanders 11.8% DVOA Rush Defense
The Commanders are giving up 131.8 YPG on 4.7 per carry thus far this season.
Packers/Commanders Bettting Stats:
Packers Against the spread: 2-4-0
Packers Over/Under: 2-4-0
Commanders Against the spread: 2-4-0
Commanders Over/Under: 2-4-0
The best bet is Green Bay Packers -5 and Under 41.5.