The 3-4-0 Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the 4-3-0 Baltimore Ravens at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers have a point spread of +1.5 with a money line of 105. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 45 points.
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Baltimore Ravens (-1.5)Record: 4-3-0 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1.5)Record: 3-4-0 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense:
The Buccaneers are coached by Todd Bowles who has been with the team since 2022. They have a current season record of 3-4-0 after going 13-4 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Todd Bowles is no different.
Tom Brady is the quarterback for the Buccaneers. The 45-year-old Michigan alum entered the league in 2000 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 7 games and thrown for 1942 yards with a completion percentage of 66.9 percent. Tom Brady has thrown 8 touchdowns despite 1 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 92.8.
His main target will be Mike Evans. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 29-year-old target. He has made 33 receptions to date on 48 targets, a catch percentage of 68.8%, for a total of 454 yards. Mike Evans is averaging 13.8 yards per catch with 3 touchdowns thus far. Tom Brady will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Buccaneers running game is lead by the 27-year-old Leonard Fournette. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 103 carries and rushed for 362 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 51.7 YPG, a number that you know Todd Bowles would love to see him exceed in this game. Leonard Fournette has 1 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.
Overall, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense ranks 19 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -2.5%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 11 with a Passing DVOA of 4.8%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 18.1%, ranking #10 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.474 with 9 Red Zone touchdowns in 19 attempts.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Buccaneers have a Defense DVOA of -12.6%, ranking 5 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #6 at -5.2% and they’ll need them to show up against Lamar Jackson. The Todd Bowles-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -5.2%, #6 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Ryan Succop who has made 16 of 17 field goals this season, a 94.1% field goal percentage, with a long of 54 yards. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Baltimore Ravens Offense:
The Ravens are on the road for this one. John Harbaugh’s squad is 4-3-0 this season after going 8-9 last year. He has been at the helm since 2008 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Baltimore Ravens have a betting line of -1.5 or you could bet them straight up at -125.
25-year-old Lamar Jackson will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2018 after playing his college days at Louisville. Lamar Jackson has a quarterback rating of 92.1 on 13 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. He’s started 7 games and thrown for 1397yards, a completion percentage of 61.4.
Kenyan Drake is the lead back for the Ravens running game. The 28-year-old has taken 42 carries and rushed for 189 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 37.8 YPG and he has scored 1 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.
On the passing front, Lamar Jackson will look to target Rashod Bateman against the John Harbaugh defense. Rashod Bateman has 2 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 27 times and made 15 catches for 285 yards. Rashod Bateman has a catch percentage of 55.6% and his yards per reception is 19.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Baltimore Ravens offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 12.2% which ranks at number 5 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 7.6%, the number 5 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 5 with a Rush DVOA total of 30.4%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 14 Red Zone touchdowns on 24 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.583.
Baltimore Ravens Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Justin Tucker to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 58 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Justin Tucker has made 14 field goals on 58 attempts, a field goal percentage of 93.3%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Ravens with a Defensive DVOA of -0.8% which ranks at 12/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #6 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -5.2%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -1.9% DVOA which ranks at #6.
Key Match-ups:
- Tom Brady QB Rating of 92.8 vs. Baltimore Ravens Pass DVOA Defense of 7.6%
The Ravens have 8 interceptions this year and 20 sacks. They are allowing 23 points per game. - Leonard Fournette vs. Baltimore Ravens number 5 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 4.5 yards per carry against the the Baltimore Ravens and 105.1 per game. - Lamar Jackson QB Rating of 92.1 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers #6 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Buccaneers defense has allowed 17.7 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 22 times and picked him off 6 times. - Kenyan Drake vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -14.1% DVOA Rush Defense
The Buccaneers are giving up 118.3 YPG on 4.4 per carry thus far this season.
Ravens/Buccaneers Bettting Stats:
Ravens Against the spread: 3-4-0
Ravens Over/Under: 2-5-0
Buccaneers Against the spread: 2-5-0
Buccaneers Over/Under: 1-6-0
The best bet is Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5 and Under 45.