Broncos vs. Chargers: Week 6 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 12 October 2022

The 3-2-0 Los Angeles Chargers host the 2-3-0 Denver Broncos at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. The Chargers have a point spread of -5 with a money line of -225. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 45½ points.

Denver Broncos Los Angeles Chargers

Denver Broncos (+5)

Record: 2-3-0
Points Per Game: 15
Points Allowed Per Game: 16

Los Angeles Chargers (-5)

Record: 3-2-0
Points Per Game: 24.4
Points Allowed Per Game: 27.2

Los Angeles Chargers Offense:

The Chargers are coached by Brandon Staley who has been with the team since 2021. They have a current season record of 3-2-0 after going 9-8 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Brandon Staley is no different.

Justin Herbert is the quarterback for the Chargers. The 24-year-old Oregon alum entered the league in 2020 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 5 games and thrown for 1478 yards with a completion percentage of 66.5 percent. Justin Herbert has thrown 10 touchdowns despite 2 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 100.8.

His main target will be Keenan Allen. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 30-year-old target. He has made 4 receptions to date on 4 targets, a catch percentage of 100.0%, for a total of 66 yards. Keenan Allen is averaging 16.5 yards per catch with 0 touchdowns thus far. Justin Herbert will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Chargers running game is lead by the 27-year-old Austin Ekeler. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 61 carries and rushed for 313 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 62.6 YPG, a number that you know Brandon Staley would love to see him exceed in this game. Austin Ekeler has 3 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.

Overall, the Los Angeles Chargers offense ranks 9 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 9.4%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 7 with a Passing DVOA of 7.2%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 32.7%, ranking #6 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.524 with 11 Red Zone touchdowns in 21 attempts.

Los Angeles Chargers Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Chargers have a Defense DVOA of 1.2%, ranking 13 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #11 at -2.9% and they’ll need them to show up against Russell Wilson. The Brandon Staley-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -2.9%, #12 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Dustin Hopkins who has made 5 of 6 field goals this season, a 83.3% field goal percentage, with a long of 43 yards. The Los Angeles Chargers fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Denver Broncos Offense:

The Broncos are on the road for this one. Nathaniel Hackett’s squad is 2-3-0 this season after going 7-10 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Denver Broncos have a betting line of +5 or you could bet them straight up at +195.

34-year-old Russell Wilson will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2012 after playing his college days at Wisconsin. Russell Wilson has a quarterback rating of 82.8 on 4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He’s started 5 games and thrown for 1254yards, a completion percentage of 59.4.

Melvin Gordon is the lead back for the Broncos running game. The 29-year-old has taken 52 carries and rushed for 193 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 38.6 YPG and he has scored 1 touchdowns with 4 fumbles.

On the passing front, Russell Wilson will look to target Courtland Sutton against the Nathaniel Hackett defense. Courtland Sutton has 1 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 46 times and made 29 catches for 417 yards. Courtland Sutton has a catch percentage of 63.0% and his yards per reception is 14.4.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Denver Broncos offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -14.7% which ranks at number 27 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -1.6%, the number 20 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 21 with a Rush DVOA total of 0.6%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 3 Red Zone touchdowns on 14 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.214.

Denver Broncos Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Brandon McManus to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 55 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Brandon McManus has made 11 field goals on 55 attempts, a field goal percentage of 78.6%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Broncos with a Defensive DVOA of -19.2% which ranks at 4/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #11 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -2.9%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -5.0% DVOA which ranks at #12.

Key Match-ups:

  • Justin Herbert QB Rating of 100.8 vs. Denver Broncos Pass DVOA Defense of -1.6%
    The Broncos have 3 interceptions this year and 17 sacks. They are allowing 16 points per game.
  • Austin Ekeler vs. Denver Broncos number 21 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 4.7 yards per carry against the the Denver Broncos and 112.4 per game.
  • Russell Wilson QB Rating of 82.8 vs. Los Angeles Chargers #11 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Chargers defense has allowed 27.2 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 11 times and picked him off 6 times.
  • Melvin Gordon vs. Los Angeles Chargers 2.7% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Chargers are giving up 130.4 YPG on 5.8 per carry thus far this season.

Broncos/Chargers Bettting Stats:

Broncos Against the spread: 1-3-0
Broncos Over/Under: 1-3-0

Chargers Against the spread: 3-1-0
Chargers Over/Under: 2-2-0

The best bet is Denver Broncos +5 and Under 45½.