Falcons vs. Bengals: Week 7 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 19 October 2022

The 3-3-0 Cincinnati Bengals host the 3-3-0 Atlanta Falcons at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio. The Bengals have a point spread of -6 with a money line of -275. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 47 points.

Atlanta Falcons Cincinnati Bengals

Atlanta Falcons (+6)

Record: 3-3-0
Points Per Game: 24.3
Points Allowed Per Game: 22.7

Cincinnati Bengals (-6)

Record: 3-3-0
Points Per Game: 23
Points Allowed Per Game: 19.2

Cincinnati Bengals Offense:

The Bengals are coached by Zac Taylor who has been with the team since 2019. They have a current season record of 3-3-0 after going 10-7 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Zac Taylor is no different.

Joe Burrow is the quarterback for the Bengals. The 26-year-old LSU alum entered the league in 2020 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 6 games and thrown for 1616 yards with a completion percentage of 66.7 percent. Joe Burrow has thrown 12 touchdowns despite 5 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 95.6.

His main target will be Ja’Marr Chase. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 22-year-old target. He has made 39 receptions to date on 63 targets, a catch percentage of 61.9%, for a total of 475 yards. Ja’Marr Chase is averaging 12.2 yards per catch with 4 touchdowns thus far. Joe Burrow will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Bengals running game is lead by the 26-year-old Joe Mixon. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 104 carries and rushed for 347 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 57.8 YPG, a number that you know Zac Taylor would love to see him exceed in this game. Joe Mixon has 1 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.

Overall, the Cincinnati Bengals offense ranks 21 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -3.1%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 13 with a Passing DVOA of 2.0%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 8.3%, ranking #19 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.632 with 12 Red Zone touchdowns in 19 attempts.

Cincinnati Bengals Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Bengals have a Defense DVOA of -8.2%, ranking 8 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #8 at -3.6% and they’ll need them to show up against Marcus Mariota. The Zac Taylor-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -3.6%, #8 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Evan McPherson who has made 11 of 13 field goals this season, a 84.6% field goal percentage, with a long of 59 yards. The Cincinnati Bengals fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Atlanta Falcons Offense:

The Falcons are on the road for this one. Arthur Smith’s squad is 3-3-0 this season after going 7-10 last year. He has been at the helm since 2021 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Atlanta Falcons have a betting line of +6 or you could bet them straight up at 230.

29-year-old Marcus Mariota will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2015 after playing his college days at Oregon. Marcus Mariota has a quarterback rating of 87.7 on 6 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He’s started 6 games and thrown for 1055yards, a completion percentage of 61.3.

Tyler Allgeier is the lead back for the Falcons running game. The 22-year-old has taken 54 carries and rushed for 235 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 47 YPG and he has scored 0 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.

On the passing front, Marcus Mariota will look to target Drake London against the Arthur Smith defense. Drake London has 2 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 43 times and made 25 catches for 306 yards. Drake London has a catch percentage of 58.1% and his yards per reception is 12.2.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Atlanta Falcons offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 12.3% which ranks at number 7 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 4.2%, the number 11 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 13 with a Rush DVOA total of 15.6%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 12 Red Zone touchdowns on 22 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.545.

Atlanta Falcons Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Younghoe Koo to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 54 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Younghoe Koo has made 10 field goals on 54 attempts, a field goal percentage of 76.9%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Falcons with a Defensive DVOA of 9.7% which ranks at 29/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #8 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -3.6%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 6.9% DVOA which ranks at #8.

Key Match-ups:

  • Joe Burrow QB Rating of 95.6 vs. Atlanta Falcons Pass DVOA Defense of 4.2%
    The Falcons have 10 interceptions this year and 19 sacks. They are allowing 13.5 points per game.
  • Joe Mixon vs. Atlanta Falcons number 13 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 3.5 yards per carry against the the Atlanta Falcons and 76.2 per game.
  • Marcus Mariota QB Rating of 87.7 vs. Cincinnati Bengals #8 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Bengals defense has allowed 19.2 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 9 times and picked him off 5 times.
  • Tyler Allgeier vs. Cincinnati Bengals -9.3% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Bengals are giving up 121 YPG on 4.7 per carry thus far this season.

Falcons/Bengals Bettting Stats:

Falcons Against the spread: 6-0-0
Falcons Over/Under: 3-3-0

Bengals Against the spread: 4-2-0
Bengals Over/Under: 1-5-0

The best bet is Cincinnati Bengals -6 and Over 47.