The 3-3-0 San Francisco 49ers host the 4-2-0 Kansas City Chiefs at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California. The 49ers have a point spread of +3 with a money line of 125. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 48.5 points.
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Kansas City Chiefs (-3)Record: 4-2-0 |
San Francisco 49ers (+3)Record: 3-3-0 |
San Francisco 49ers Offense:
The 49ers are coached by Kyle Shanahan who has been with the team since 2017. They have a current season record of 3-3-0 after going 10-7 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Kyle Shanahan is no different.
Jimmy Garoppolo is the quarterback for the 49ers. The 31-year-old Eastern Illinois University alum entered the league in 2014 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 4 games and thrown for 1153 yards with a completion percentage of 63.5 percent. Jimmy Garoppolo has thrown 7 touchdowns despite 3 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 94.8.
His main target will be Deebo Samuel. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 26-year-old target. He has made 27 receptions to date on 47 targets, a catch percentage of 57.4%, for a total of 345 yards. Deebo Samuel is averaging 12.8 yards per catch with 2 touchdowns thus far. Jimmy Garoppolo will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The 49ers running game is lead by the 24-year-old Elijah Mitchell. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 6 carries and rushed for 41 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 41 YPG, a number that you know Kyle Shanahan would love to see him exceed in this game. Elijah Mitchell has 0 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.
Overall, the San Francisco 49ers offense ranks 15 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 2.3%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 14 with a Passing DVOA of 1.4%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 25.3%, ranking #7 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.588 with 10 Red Zone touchdowns in 17 attempts.
San Francisco 49ers Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the 49ers have a Defense DVOA of -17.7%, ranking 3 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #3 at -8.9% and they’ll need them to show up against Patrick Mahomes. The Kyle Shanahan-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -8.9%, #7 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Robbie Gould who has made 6 of 9 field goals this season, a 66.7% field goal percentage, with a long of 51 yards. The San Francisco 49ers fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Kansas City Chiefs Offense:
The Chiefs are on the road for this one. Andy Reid’s squad is 4-2-0 this season after going 12-5 last year. He has been at the helm since 2013 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Kansas City Chiefs have a betting line of -3 or you could bet them straight up at -145.
27-year-old Patrick Mahomes will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2017 after playing his college days at Texas Tech. Patrick Mahomes has a quarterback rating of 106.1 on 17 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He’s started 6 games and thrown for 1736yards, a completion percentage of 65.9.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is the lead back for the Chiefs running game. The 23-year-old has taken 59 carries and rushed for 256 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 42.7 YPG and he has scored 2 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.
On the passing front, Patrick Mahomes will look to target JuJu Smith-Schuster against the Andy Reid defense. JuJu Smith-Schuster has 1 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 40 times and made 27 catches for 370 yards. JuJu Smith-Schuster has a catch percentage of 67.5% and his yards per reception is 13.7.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Kansas City Chiefs offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 18.2% which ranks at number 2 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 14.5%, the number 2 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 2 with a Rush DVOA total of 36.2%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 19 Red Zone touchdowns on 25 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.76.
Kansas City Chiefs Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Harrison Butker to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 62 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Harrison Butker has made 3 field goals on 62 attempts, a field goal percentage of 75.0%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Chiefs with a Defensive DVOA of 8.6% which ranks at 28/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #3 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -8.9%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 6.0% DVOA which ranks at #7.
Key Match-ups:
- Jimmy Garoppolo QB Rating of 94.8 vs. Kansas City Chiefs Pass DVOA Defense of 14.5%
The Chiefs have 1 interceptions this year and 14 sacks. They are allowing 24.8 points per game. - Elijah Mitchell vs. Kansas City Chiefs number 2 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 4.1 yards per carry against the the Kansas City Chiefs and 90.5 per game. - Patrick Mahomes QB Rating of 106.1 vs. San Francisco 49ers #3 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The 49ers defense has allowed 14.8 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 23 times and picked him off 5 times. - Clyde Edwards-Helaire vs. San Francisco 49ers -13.2% DVOA Rush Defense
The 49ers are giving up 87.5 YPG on 3.3 per carry thus far this season.
Chiefs/49ers Bettting Stats:
Chiefs Against the spread: 2-4-0
Chiefs Over/Under: 3-3-0
49ers Against the spread: 3-3-0
49ers Over/Under: 1-5-0
The best bet is San Francisco 49ers +3 and Over 48.5.