The 3-2-0 Miami Dolphins host the 4-1-0 Minnesota Vikings at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. The Dolphins have a point spread of +3.5 with a money line of +163. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 45½ points.
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Minnesota Vikings (-3½)Record: 4-1-0 |
Miami Dolphins (+3.5)Record: 3-2-0 |
Miami Dolphins Offense:
The Dolphins are coached by Mike McDaniel who has been with the team since 2022. They have a current season record of 3-2-0 after going 9-8 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Mike McDaniel is no different.
Teddy Bridgewater is the quarterback for the Dolphins. The 30-year-old Louisville alum entered the league in 2014 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 1 games and thrown for 193 yards with a completion percentage of 53.8 percent. Teddy Bridgewater has thrown 1 touchdowns despite 1 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 74.7.
His main target will be Tyreek Hill. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 28-year-old target. He has made 38 receptions to date on 50 targets, a catch percentage of 76.0%, for a total of 524 yards. Tyreek Hill is averaging 13.8 yards per catch with 2 touchdowns thus far. Teddy Bridgewater will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Dolphins running game is lead by the 26-year-old Chase Edmonds. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 29 carries and rushed for 86 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 17.2 YPG, a number that you know Mike McDaniel would love to see him exceed in this game. Chase Edmonds has 2 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.
Overall, the Miami Dolphins offense ranks 6 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 14.9%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 8 with a Passing DVOA of 6.8%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 36.7%, ranking #5 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.667 with 10 Red Zone touchdowns in 15 attempts.
Miami Dolphins Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Dolphins have a Defense DVOA of 12.1%, ranking 29 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #28 at 5.9% and they’ll need them to show up against Kirk Cousins. The Mike McDaniel-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 5.9%, #32 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Jason Sanders who has made 6 of 8 field goals this season, a 75.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 49 yards. The Miami Dolphins fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Minnesota Vikings Offense:
The Vikings are on the road for this one. Kevin O’Connell’s squad is 4-1-0 this season after going 8-9 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Minnesota Vikings have a betting line of -3½ or you could bet them straight up at -183.
34-year-old Kirk Cousins will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2012 after playing his college days at Michigan State. Kirk Cousins has a quarterback rating of 86.4 on 7 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. He’s started 5 games and thrown for 1327yards, a completion percentage of 66.2.
Dalvin Cook is the lead back for the Vikings running game. The 27-year-old has taken 81 carries and rushed for 373 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 74.6 YPG and he has scored 3 touchdowns with 1 fumbles.
On the passing front, Kirk Cousins will look to target Justin Jefferson against the Kevin O’Connell defense. Justin Jefferson has 2 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 55 times and made 40 catches for 547 yards. Justin Jefferson has a catch percentage of 72.7% and his yards per reception is 13.7.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Minnesota Vikings offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 6.3% which ranks at number 11 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 6.2%, the number 9 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 14 with a Rush DVOA total of 14.2%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 11 Red Zone touchdowns on 19 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.579.
Minnesota Vikings Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Greg Joseph to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 56 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Greg Joseph has made 8 field goals on 56 attempts, a field goal percentage of 66.7%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Vikings with a Defensive DVOA of 10.0% which ranks at 28/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #28 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 5.9%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 4.3% DVOA which ranks at #32.
Key Match-ups:
- Teddy Bridgewater QB Rating of 74.7 vs. Minnesota Vikings Pass DVOA Defense of 6.2%
The Vikings have 3 interceptions this year and 11 sacks. They are allowing 20.4 points per game. - Chase Edmonds vs. Minnesota Vikings number 14 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 4.4 yards per carry against the the Minnesota Vikings and 120.4 per game. - Kirk Cousins QB Rating of 86.4 vs. Miami Dolphins #28 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Dolphins defense has allowed 26.2 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 9 times and picked him off 1 times. - Dalvin Cook vs. Miami Dolphins 31.9% DVOA Rush Defense
The Dolphins are giving up 110 YPG on 4.1 per carry thus far this season.
Vikings/Dolphins Bettting Stats:
Vikings Against the spread: 1-3-0
Vikings Over/Under: 2-2-0
Dolphins Against the spread: 3-1-0
Dolphins Over/Under: 1-3-0
The best bet is Miami Dolphins +3.5 and Over 45½.