Raiders vs. Chiefs: Week 5 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 4 October 2022

The 3-1-0 Kansas City Chiefs host the 1-3-0 Las Vegas Raiders at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. The Chiefs have a point spread of -7 with a money line of -325. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 51 points.

Las Vegas Raiders Kansas City Chiefs

Las Vegas Raiders (7)

Record: 1-3-0
Points Per Game: 24
Points Allowed Per Game: 25

Kansas City Chiefs (-7)

Record: 3-1-0
Points Per Game: 32.3
Points Allowed Per Game: 24

Kansas City Chiefs Offense:

The Chiefs are coached by Andy Reid who has been with the team since 2013. They have a current season record of 3-1-0 after going 12-5 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Andy Reid is no different.

Patrick Mahomes is the quarterback for the Chiefs. The 27-year-old Texas Tech alum entered the league in 2017 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 4 games and thrown for 1106 yards with a completion percentage of 66.4 percent. Patrick Mahomes has thrown 11 touchdowns despite 2 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 108.4.

His main target will be JuJu Smith-Schuster. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 26-year-old target. He has made 19 receptions to date on 27 targets, a catch percentage of 70.4%, for a total of 224 yards. JuJu Smith-Schuster is averaging 11.8 yards per catch with 0 touchdowns thus far. Patrick Mahomes will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Chiefs running game is lead by the 23-year-old Clyde Edwards-Helaire. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 41 carries and rushed for 208 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 52 YPG, a number that you know Andy Reid would love to see him exceed in this game. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has 2 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.

Overall, the Kansas City Chiefs offense ranks 5 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 17.6%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 1 with a Passing DVOA of 13.5%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 35.0%, ranking #7 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.737 with 14 Red Zone touchdowns in 19 attempts.

Kansas City Chiefs Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Chiefs have a Defense DVOA of 2.0%, ranking 14 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #25 at 3.3% and they’ll need them to show up against Derek Carr. The Andy Reid-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 3.3%, #21 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Harrison Butker who has made 1 of 1 field goals this season, a 100.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 54 yards. The Kansas City Chiefs fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Las Vegas Raiders Offense:

The Raiders are on the road for this one. Josh McDaniels’s squad is 1-3-0 this season after going 10-7 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Las Vegas Raiders have a betting line of 7 or you could bet them straight up at 270.

31-year-old Derek Carr will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2014 after playing his college days at Fresno State. Derek Carr has a quarterback rating of 83.2 on 6 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He’s started 4 games and thrown for 1038yards, a completion percentage of 61.

Josh Jacobs is the lead back for the Raiders running game. The 24-year-old has taken 70 carries and rushed for 336 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 84 YPG and he has scored 2 touchdowns with 1 fumbles.

On the passing front, Derek Carr will look to target Davante Adams against the Josh McDaniels defense. Davante Adams has 3 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 47 times and made 26 catches for 290 yards. Davante Adams has a catch percentage of 55.3% and his yards per reception is 11.2.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Las Vegas Raiders offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -6.0% which ranks at number 20 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 2.0%, the number 11 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 21 with a Rush DVOA total of 1.0%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 8 Red Zone touchdowns on 18 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.444.

Las Vegas Raiders Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Daniel Carlson to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 55 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Daniel Carlson has made 12 field goals on 55 attempts, a field goal percentage of 100.0%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Raiders with a Defensive DVOA of 5.0% which ranks at 20/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #25 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 3.3%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 1.9% DVOA which ranks at #21.

Key Match-ups:

  • Patrick Mahomes QB Rating of 108.4 vs. Las Vegas Raiders Pass DVOA Defense of 2.0%
    The Raiders have 2 interceptions this year and 5 sacks. They are allowing 25 points per game.
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire vs. Las Vegas Raiders number 21 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 3.9 yards per carry against the the Las Vegas Raiders and 103.3 per game.
  • Derek Carr QB Rating of 83.2 vs. Kansas City Chiefs #25 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Chiefs defense has allowed 24 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 11 times and picked him off 1 times.
  • Josh Jacobs vs. Kansas City Chiefs 13.5% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Chiefs are giving up 65.8 YPG on 3.3 per carry thus far this season.

Raiders/Chiefs Bettting Stats:

Raiders Against the spread: 1-3-0
Raiders Over/Under: 2-1-1

Chiefs Against the spread: 2-2-0
Chiefs Over/Under: 2-2-0

The best bet is Kansas City Chiefs -7 and Under 51.