Patriots vs. Browns: Week 6 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 12 October 2022

The 2-3-0 Cleveland Browns host the 2-3-0 New England Patriots at FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland, Ohio. The Browns have a point spread of -3 with a money line of -148. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 43½ points.

New England Patriots Cleveland Browns

New England Patriots (+3)

Record: 2-3-0
Points Per Game: 20.6
Points Allowed Per Game: 19.6

Cleveland Browns (-3)

Record: 2-3-0
Points Per Game: 26.6
Points Allowed Per Game: 25

Cleveland Browns Offense:

The Browns are coached by Kevin Stefanski who has been with the team since 2020. They have a current season record of 2-3-0 after going 8-9 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Kevin Stefanski is no different.

Jacoby Brissett is the quarterback for the Browns. The 30-year-old NC State alum entered the league in 2016 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 5 games and thrown for 1060 yards with a completion percentage of 64 percent. Jacoby Brissett has thrown 5 touchdowns despite 3 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 85.4.

His main target will be Amari Cooper. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 28-year-old target. He has made 27 receptions to date on 43 targets, a catch percentage of 62.8%, for a total of 304 yards. Amari Cooper is averaging 11.3 yards per catch with 3 touchdowns thus far. Jacoby Brissett will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Browns running game is lead by the 27-year-old Nick Chubb. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 98 carries and rushed for 593 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 118.6 YPG, a number that you know Kevin Stefanski would love to see him exceed in this game. Nick Chubb has 7 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.

Overall, the Cleveland Browns offense ranks 4 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 16.3%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 10 with a Passing DVOA of 6.1%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 23.7%, ranking #10 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.6 with 12 Red Zone touchdowns in 20 attempts.

Cleveland Browns Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Browns have a Defense DVOA of 13.9%, ranking 30 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #25 at 4.0% and they’ll need them to show up against Mac Jones. The Kevin Stefanski-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 4.0%, #16 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Cade York who has made 8 of 10 field goals this season, a 80.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 58 yards. The Cleveland Browns fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

New England Patriots Offense:

The Patriots are on the road for this one. Bill Belichick’s squad is 2-3-0 this season after going 10-7 last year. He has been at the helm since 2000 and is looking to grab a road win here. The New England Patriots have a betting line of +3 or you could bet them straight up at +128.

24-year-old Mac Jones will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2021 after playing his college days at Alabama. Mac Jones has a quarterback rating of 76.2 on 2 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. He’s started 3 games and thrown for 786yards, a completion percentage of 66.

Rhamondre Stevenson is the lead back for the Patriots running game. The 24-year-old has taken 68 carries and rushed for 372 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 74.4 YPG and he has scored 1 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.

On the passing front, Mac Jones will look to target Jakobi Meyers against the Bill Belichick defense. Jakobi Meyers has 1 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 27 times and made 20 catches for 261 yards. Jakobi Meyers has a catch percentage of 74.1% and his yards per reception is 13.1.

According to FootballOutsiders, the New England Patriots offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -4.5% which ranks at number 22 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -0.8%, the number 18 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 26 with a Rush DVOA total of -2.9%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 6 Red Zone touchdowns on 15 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.4.

New England Patriots Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Nick Folk to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 50 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Nick Folk has made 9 field goals on 50 attempts, a field goal percentage of 90.0%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Patriots with a Defensive DVOA of -3.6% which ranks at 9/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #25 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 4.0%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 0.2% DVOA which ranks at #16.

Key Match-ups:

  • Jacoby Brissett QB Rating of 85.4 vs. New England Patriots Pass DVOA Defense of -0.8%
    The Patriots have 4 interceptions this year and 13 sacks. They are allowing 19.6 points per game.
  • Nick Chubb vs. New England Patriots number 26 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 4.8 yards per carry against the the New England Patriots and 128.8 per game.
  • Mac Jones QB Rating of 76.2 vs. Cleveland Browns #25 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Browns defense has allowed 25 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 9 times and picked him off 2 times.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson vs. Cleveland Browns 8.6% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Browns are giving up 138.2 YPG on 5.3 per carry thus far this season.

Patriots/Browns Bettting Stats:

Patriots Against the spread: 1-2-1
Patriots Over/Under: 2-2-0

Browns Against the spread: 2-2-0
Browns Over/Under: 3-1-0

The best bet is New England Patriots +3 and Over 43½.