Jets vs. Packers: Week 6 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 12 October 2022

The 3-2-0 Green Bay Packers host the 3-2-0 New York Jets at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Packers have a point spread of -7 with a money line of -315. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 45 points.

New York Jets Green Bay Packers

New York Jets (+7)

Record: 3-2-0
Points Per Game: 23.2
Points Allowed Per Game: 23.6

Green Bay Packers (-7)

Record: 3-2-0
Points Per Game: 19.4
Points Allowed Per Game: 19.2

Green Bay Packers Offense:

The Packers are coached by Matt LaFleur who has been with the team since 2019. They have a current season record of 3-2-0 after going 13-4 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Matt LaFleur is no different.

Aaron Rodgers is the quarterback for the Packers. The 39-year-old California alum entered the league in 2005 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 5 games and thrown for 1157 yards with a completion percentage of 67.9 percent. Aaron Rodgers has thrown 8 touchdowns despite 3 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 95.8.

His main target will be Allen Lazard. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 27-year-old target. He has made 16 receptions to date on 25 targets, a catch percentage of 64.0%, for a total of 209 yards. Allen Lazard is averaging 13.1 yards per catch with 3 touchdowns thus far. Aaron Rodgers will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Packers running game is lead by the 28-year-old Aaron Jones. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 61 carries and rushed for 390 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 78 YPG, a number that you know Matt LaFleur would love to see him exceed in this game. Aaron Jones has 1 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.

Overall, the Green Bay Packers offense ranks 8 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 13.4%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 3 with a Passing DVOA of 11.0%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 16.9%, ranking #13 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.611 with 11 Red Zone touchdowns in 18 attempts.

Green Bay Packers Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Packers have a Defense DVOA of 7.1%, ranking 23 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #22 at 2.8% and they’ll need them to show up against Joe Flacco. The Matt LaFleur-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 2.8%, #11 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Mason Crosby who has made 6 of 6 field goals this season, a 100.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 48 yards. The Green Bay Packers fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

New York Jets Offense:

The Jets are on the road for this one. Robert Saleh’s squad is 3-2-0 this season after going 4-13 last year. He has been at the helm since 2021 and is looking to grab a road win here. The New York Jets have a betting line of +7 or you could bet them straight up at +265.

37-year-old Joe Flacco will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2008 after playing his college days at Delaware. Joe Flacco has a quarterback rating of 77.9 on 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He’s started 3 games and thrown for 901yards, a completion percentage of 58.7.

Breece Hall is the lead back for the Jets running game. The 21-year-old has taken 56 carries and rushed for 275 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 55 YPG and he has scored 2 touchdowns with 1 fumbles.

On the passing front, Joe Flacco will look to target Elijah Moore against the Robert Saleh defense. Elijah Moore has 0 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 29 times and made 16 catches for 203 yards. Elijah Moore has a catch percentage of 55.2% and his yards per reception is 12.7.

According to FootballOutsiders, the New York Jets offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -3.5% which ranks at number 21 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -5.4%, the number 26 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 19 with a Rush DVOA total of 1.6%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 12 Red Zone touchdowns on 17 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.706.

New York Jets Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Greg Zuerlein to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 57 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Greg Zuerlein has made 8 field goals on 57 attempts, a field goal percentage of 88.9%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Jets with a Defensive DVOA of 5.4% which ranks at 21/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #22 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 2.8%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 0.1% DVOA which ranks at #11.

Key Match-ups:

  • Aaron Rodgers QB Rating of 95.8 vs. New York Jets Pass DVOA Defense of -5.4%
    The Jets have 7 interceptions this year and 10 sacks. They are allowing 23.6 points per game.
  • Aaron Jones vs. New York Jets number 19 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 4 yards per carry against the the New York Jets and 114.4 per game.
  • Joe Flacco QB Rating of 77.9 vs. Green Bay Packers #22 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Packers defense has allowed 19.2 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 12 times and picked him off 1 times.
  • Breece Hall vs. Green Bay Packers 2.2% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Packers are giving up 126.4 YPG on 4.8 per carry thus far this season.

Jets/Packers Bettting Stats:

Jets Against the spread: 2-2-0
Jets Over/Under: 2-2-0

Packers Against the spread: 2-2-0
Packers Over/Under: 1-3-0

The best bet is New York Jets +7 and Over 45.