Jaguars vs. Colts: Week 6 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 12 October 2022

The 2-2-1 Indianapolis Colts host the 2-3-0 Jacksonville Jaguars at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana. The Colts have a point spread of -2 with a money line of -134. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 42 points.

Jacksonville Jaguars Indianapolis Colts

Jacksonville Jaguars (+2)

Record: 2-3-0
Points Per Game: 22.2
Points Allowed Per Game: 16

Indianapolis Colts (-2)

Record: 2-2-1
Points Per Game: 13.8
Points Allowed Per Game: 18.8

Indianapolis Colts Offense:

The Colts are coached by Frank Reich who has been with the team since 2018. They have a current season record of 2-2-1 after going 9-8 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Frank Reich is no different.

Matt Ryan is the quarterback for the Colts. The 37-year-old Boston College alum entered the league in 2008 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 5 games and thrown for 1376 yards with a completion percentage of 65.6 percent. Matt Ryan has thrown 5 touchdowns despite 7 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 79.8.

His main target will be Michael Pittman Jr.. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 25-year-old target. He has made 25 receptions to date on 36 targets, a catch percentage of 69.4%, for a total of 283 yards. Michael Pittman Jr. is averaging 11.3 yards per catch with 1 touchdowns thus far. Matt Ryan will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Colts running game is lead by the 23-year-old Jonathan Taylor. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 81 carries and rushed for 328 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 82 YPG, a number that you know Frank Reich would love to see him exceed in this game. Jonathan Taylor has 1 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.

Overall, the Indianapolis Colts offense ranks 32 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -35.2%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 32 with a Passing DVOA of -14.2%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -30.0%, ranking #32 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.4 with 6 Red Zone touchdowns in 15 attempts.

Indianapolis Colts Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Colts have a Defense DVOA of -2.9%, ranking 11 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #17 at 0.4% and they’ll need them to show up against Trevor Lawrence. The Frank Reich-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 0.4%, #21 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Rodrigo Blankenship who has made 2 of 3 field goals this season, a 66.7% field goal percentage, with a long of 45 yards. The Indianapolis Colts fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Jacksonville Jaguars Offense:

The Jaguars are on the road for this one. Doug Pederson’s squad is 2-3-0 this season after going 3-14 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Jacksonville Jaguars have a betting line of +2 or you could bet them straight up at +114.

23-year-old Trevor Lawrence will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2021 after playing his college days at Clemson. Trevor Lawrence has a quarterback rating of 88 on 8 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He’s started 5 games and thrown for 1232yards, a completion percentage of 62.4.

James Robinson is the lead back for the Jaguars running game. The 24-year-old has taken 69 carries and rushed for 286 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 57.2 YPG and he has scored 3 touchdowns with 1 fumbles.

On the passing front, Trevor Lawrence will look to target Christian Kirk against the Doug Pederson defense. Christian Kirk has 3 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 39 times and made 21 catches for 338 yards. Christian Kirk has a catch percentage of 53.8% and his yards per reception is 16.1.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Jacksonville Jaguars offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 3.7% which ranks at number 15 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -2.6%, the number 22 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 9 with a Rush DVOA total of 25.8%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 9 Red Zone touchdowns on 19 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.474.

Jacksonville Jaguars Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Riley Patterson to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 52 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Riley Patterson has made 9 field goals on 52 attempts, a field goal percentage of 90.0%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Jaguars with a Defensive DVOA of -11.9% which ranks at 7/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #17 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 0.4%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -3.1% DVOA which ranks at #21.

Key Match-ups:

  • Matt Ryan QB Rating of 79.8 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Pass DVOA Defense of -2.6%
    The Jaguars have 7 interceptions this year and 10 sacks. They are allowing 16 points per game.
  • Jonathan Taylor vs. Jacksonville Jaguars number 9 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 3.7 yards per carry against the the Jacksonville Jaguars and 98.2 per game.
  • Trevor Lawrence QB Rating of 88 vs. Indianapolis Colts #17 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Colts defense has allowed 18.8 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 11 times and picked him off 3 times.
  • James Robinson vs. Indianapolis Colts 12.6% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Colts are giving up 96.6 YPG on 3.4 per carry thus far this season.

Jaguars/Colts Bettting Stats:

Jaguars Against the spread: 2-2-0
Jaguars Over/Under: 3-1-0

Colts Against the spread: 1-3-0
Colts Over/Under: 0-4-0

The best bet is Jacksonville Jaguars +2 and Under 42.