Buccaneers vs. Steelers: Week 6 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 12 October 2022

The 1-4-0 Pittsburgh Steelers host the 3-2-0 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The Steelers have a point spread of +9 with a money line of +315. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 43½ points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pittsburgh Steelers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9)

Record: 3-2-0
Points Per Game: 20.6
Points Allowed Per Game: 16.6

Pittsburgh Steelers (+9)

Record: 1-4-0
Points Per Game: 15.4
Points Allowed Per Game: 25.6

Pittsburgh Steelers Offense:

The Steelers are coached by Mike Tomlin who has been with the team since 2007. They have a current season record of 1-4-0 after going 9-7 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Mike Tomlin is no different.

Mitchell Trubisky is the quarterback for the Steelers. The 28-year-old North Carolina alum entered the league in 2017 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 4 games and thrown for 653 yards with a completion percentage of 59.5 percent. Mitchell Trubisky has thrown 2 touchdowns despite 2 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 73.7.

His main target will be Diontae Johnson. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 26-year-old target. He has made 28 receptions to date on 50 targets, a catch percentage of 56.0%, for a total of 267 yards. Diontae Johnson is averaging 9.5 yards per catch with 0 touchdowns thus far. Mitchell Trubisky will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Steelers running game is lead by the 24-year-old Najee Harris. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 69 carries and rushed for 222 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 44.4 YPG, a number that you know Mike Tomlin would love to see him exceed in this game. Najee Harris has 1 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.

Overall, the Pittsburgh Steelers offense ranks 24 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -10.9%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 27 with a Passing DVOA of -6.7%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -1.4%, ranking #24 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.462 with 6 Red Zone touchdowns in 13 attempts.

Pittsburgh Steelers Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Steelers have a Defense DVOA of 3.9%, ranking 16 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #13 at -0.7% and they’ll need them to show up against Tom Brady. The Mike Tomlin-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -0.7%, #18 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Chris Boswell who has made 9 of 13 field goals this season, a 69.2% field goal percentage, with a long of 59 yards. The Pittsburgh Steelers fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense:

The Buccaneers are on the road for this one. Todd Bowles’s squad is 3-2-0 this season after going 13-4 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a betting line of -9 or you could bet them straight up at -385.

45-year-old Tom Brady will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2000 after playing his college days at Michigan. Tom Brady has a quarterback rating of 96.5 on 7 touchdowns and 1 interceptions. He’s started 5 games and thrown for 1409yards, a completion percentage of 68.1.

Leonard Fournette is the lead back for the Buccaneers running game. The 27-year-old has taken 74 carries and rushed for 280 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 56 YPG and he has scored 1 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.

On the passing front, Tom Brady will look to target Mike Evans against the Todd Bowles defense. Mike Evans has 3 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 29 times and made 20 catches for 316 yards. Mike Evans has a catch percentage of 69.0% and his yards per reception is 15.8.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 5.2% which ranks at number 13 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 9.4%, the number 5 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 8 with a Rush DVOA total of 26.1%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 8 Red Zone touchdowns on 14 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.571.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Ryan Succop to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 47 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Ryan Succop has made 11 field goals on 47 attempts, a field goal percentage of 91.7%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Buccaneers with a Defensive DVOA of -20.6% which ranks at 3/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #13 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -0.7%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -6.5% DVOA which ranks at #18.

Key Match-ups:

  • Mitchell Trubisky QB Rating of 73.7 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pass DVOA Defense of 9.4%
    The Buccaneers have 6 interceptions this year and 19 sacks. They are allowing 16.6 points per game.
  • Najee Harris vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers number 8 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 4.4 yards per carry against the the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and 115.6 per game.
  • Tom Brady QB Rating of 96.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers #13 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Steelers defense has allowed 25.6 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 10 times and picked him off 8 times.
  • Leonard Fournette vs. Pittsburgh Steelers 11.1% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Steelers are giving up 129.2 YPG on 4.3 per carry thus far this season.

Buccaneers/Steelers Bettting Stats:

Buccaneers Against the spread: 2-2-0
Buccaneers Over/Under: 1-3-0

Steelers Against the spread: 1-2-1
Steelers Over/Under: 2-2-0

The best bet is Tampa Bay Buccaneers -9 and Under 43½.