Bills vs. Chiefs: Week 6 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 12 October 2022

The 4-1-0 Kansas City Chiefs host the 4-1-0 Buffalo Bills at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. The Chiefs have a point spread of +3 with a money line of +131. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 54 points.

Buffalo Bills Kansas City Chiefs

Buffalo Bills (-3)

Record: 4-1-0
Points Per Game: 30.4
Points Allowed Per Game: 12.2

Kansas City Chiefs (+3)

Record: 4-1-0
Points Per Game: 31.8
Points Allowed Per Game: 25

Kansas City Chiefs Offense:

The Chiefs are coached by Andy Reid who has been with the team since 2013. They have a current season record of 4-1-0 after going 12-5 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Andy Reid is no different.

Patrick Mahomes is the quarterback for the Chiefs. The 27-year-old Texas Tech alum entered the league in 2017 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 5 games and thrown for 1398 yards with a completion percentage of 66.7 percent. Patrick Mahomes has thrown 15 touchdowns despite 2 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 110.5.

His main target will be JuJu Smith-Schuster. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 26-year-old target. He has made 22 receptions to date on 35 targets, a catch percentage of 62.9%, for a total of 257 yards. JuJu Smith-Schuster is averaging 11.7 yards per catch with 0 touchdowns thus far. Patrick Mahomes will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Chiefs running game is lead by the 23-year-old Clyde Edwards-Helaire. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 50 carries and rushed for 223 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 44.6 YPG, a number that you know Andy Reid would love to see him exceed in this game. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has 2 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.

Overall, the Kansas City Chiefs offense ranks 3 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 18.6%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 1 with a Passing DVOA of 14.2%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 37.3%, ranking #4 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.783 with 18 Red Zone touchdowns in 23 attempts.

Kansas City Chiefs Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Chiefs have a Defense DVOA of 3.3%, ranking 15 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #24 at 3.7% and they’ll need them to show up against Josh Allen. The Andy Reid-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 3.7%, #19 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Harrison Butker who has made 1 of 1 field goals this season, a 100.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 54 yards. The Kansas City Chiefs fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Buffalo Bills Offense:

The Bills are on the road for this one. Sean McDermott’s squad is 4-1-0 this season after going 11-6 last year. He has been at the helm since 2017 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Buffalo Bills have a betting line of -3 or you could bet them straight up at -151.

26-year-old Josh Allen will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2018 after playing his college days at Wyoming. Josh Allen has a quarterback rating of 107.4 on 14 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He’s started 5 games and thrown for 1651yards, a completion percentage of 66.8.

Devin Singletary is the lead back for the Bills running game. The 25-year-old has taken 40 carries and rushed for 171 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 34.2 YPG and he has scored 0 touchdowns with 1 fumbles.

On the passing front, Josh Allen will look to target Stefon Diggs against the Sean McDermott defense. Stefon Diggs has 5 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 52 times and made 39 catches for 508 yards. Stefon Diggs has a catch percentage of 75.0% and his yards per reception is 13.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Buffalo Bills offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 14.9% which ranks at number 7 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 11.6%, the number 2 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 3 with a Rush DVOA total of 40.6%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 10 Red Zone touchdowns on 18 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.556.

Buffalo Bills Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Tyler Bass to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 49 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Tyler Bass has made 8 field goals on 49 attempts, a field goal percentage of 80.0%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Bills with a Defensive DVOA of -21.8% which ranks at 2/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #24 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 3.7%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -10.9% DVOA which ranks at #19.

Key Match-ups:

  • Patrick Mahomes QB Rating of 110.5 vs. Buffalo Bills Pass DVOA Defense of 11.6%
    The Bills have 8 interceptions this year and 16 sacks. They are allowing 12.2 points per game.
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire vs. Buffalo Bills number 3 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 3.5 yards per carry against the the Buffalo Bills and 77.8 per game.
  • Josh Allen QB Rating of 107.4 vs. Kansas City Chiefs #24 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Chiefs defense has allowed 25 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 13 times and picked him off 1 times.
  • Devin Singletary vs. Kansas City Chiefs 11.5% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Chiefs are giving up 83.6 YPG on 4.1 per carry thus far this season.

Bills/Chiefs Bettting Stats:

Bills Against the spread: 2-2-0
Bills Over/Under: 1-3-0

Chiefs Against the spread: 2-2-0
Chiefs Over/Under: 2-2-0

The best bet is Buffalo Bills -3 and Under 54.