The 2-2-0 Jacksonville Jaguars host the 0-3-1 Houston Texans at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Florida. The Jaguars have a point spread of -7 with a money line of -350. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 44½ points.
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Houston Texans (7)Record: 0-3-1 |
Jacksonville Jaguars (-7)Record: 2-2-0 |
Jacksonville Jaguars Offense:
The Jaguars are coached by Doug Pederson who has been with the team since 2022. They have a current season record of 2-2-0 after going 3-14 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Doug Pederson is no different.
Trevor Lawrence is the quarterback for the Jaguars. The 23-year-old Clemson alum entered the league in 2021 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 4 games and thrown for 946 yards with a completion percentage of 65.7 percent. Trevor Lawrence has thrown 8 touchdowns despite 2 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 99.9.
His main target will be Christian Kirk. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 26-year-old target. He has made 20 receptions to date on 36 targets, a catch percentage of 55.6%, for a total of 327 yards. Christian Kirk is averaging 16.4 yards per catch with 3 touchdowns thus far. Trevor Lawrence will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Jaguars running game is lead by the 24-year-old James Robinson. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 59 carries and rushed for 259 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 64.8 YPG, a number that you know Doug Pederson would love to see him exceed in this game. James Robinson has 3 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.
Overall, the Jacksonville Jaguars offense ranks 12 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 5.7%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 21 with a Passing DVOA of -2.5%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 31.9%, ranking #8 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.563 with 9 Red Zone touchdowns in 16 attempts.
Jacksonville Jaguars Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Jaguars have a Defense DVOA of -14.3%, ranking 6 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #10 at -3.1% and they’ll need them to show up against Davis Mills. The Doug Pederson-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -3.1%, #7 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Riley Patterson who has made 7 of 8 field goals this season, a 87.5% field goal percentage, with a long of 52 yards. The Jacksonville Jaguars fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Houston Texans Offense:
The Texans are on the road for this one. Lovie Smith’s squad is 0-3-1 this season after going 4-13 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Houston Texans have a betting line of 7 or you could bet them straight up at 280.
24-year-old Davis Mills will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2021 after playing his college days at Stanford. Davis Mills has a quarterback rating of 80.4 on 5 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He’s started 4 games and thrown for 908yards, a completion percentage of 62.
Dameon Pierce is the lead back for the Texans running game. The 22-year-old has taken 60 carries and rushed for 313 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 78.3 YPG and he has scored 2 touchdowns with 2 fumbles.
On the passing front, Davis Mills will look to target Brandin Cooks against the Lovie Smith defense. Brandin Cooks has 1 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 36 times and made 20 catches for 215 yards. Brandin Cooks has a catch percentage of 55.6% and his yards per reception is 10.8.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Houston Texans offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -19.0% which ranks at number 30 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -11.4%, the number 29 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 29 with a Rush DVOA total of -14.8%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 5 Red Zone touchdowns on 9 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.556.
Houston Texans Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Ka’imi Fairbairn to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 45 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Ka’imi Fairbairn has made 8 field goals on 45 attempts, a field goal percentage of 88.9%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Texans with a Defensive DVOA of 10.4% which ranks at 27/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #10 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -3.1%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 2.6% DVOA which ranks at #7.
Key Match-ups:
- Trevor Lawrence QB Rating of 99.9 vs. Houston Texans Pass DVOA Defense of -11.4%
The Texans have 4 interceptions this year and 11 sacks. They are allowing 23.3 points per game. - James Robinson vs. Houston Texans number 29 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 5.1 yards per carry against the the Houston Texans and 172 per game. - Davis Mills QB Rating of 80.4 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars #10 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Jaguars defense has allowed 16.8 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 9 times and picked him off 7 times. - Dameon Pierce vs. Jacksonville Jaguars -14.6% DVOA Rush Defense
The Jaguars are giving up 93.8 YPG on 3.6 per carry thus far this season.
Texans/Jaguars Bettting Stats:
Texans Against the spread: 2-1-1
Texans Over/Under: 2-2-0
Jaguars Against the spread: 2-2-0
Jaguars Over/Under: 3-1-0
The best bet is Jacksonville Jaguars -7 and Under 44½.