Commanders vs. Bears: Week 6 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 12 October 2022

The 2-3-0 Chicago Bears host the 1-4-0 Washington Commanders at Soldier Field in Chicago, Illinois. The Bears have a point spread of pk with a money line of -110. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 37½ points.

Washington Commanders Chicago Bears

Washington Commanders (pk)

Record: 1-4-0
Points Per Game: 18
Points Allowed Per Game: 25.6

Chicago Bears (pk)

Record: 2-3-0
Points Per Game: 17.2
Points Allowed Per Game: 21.2

Chicago Bears Offense:

The Bears are coached by Matt Eberflus who has been with the team since 2022. They have a current season record of 2-3-0 after going 6-11 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Matt Eberflus is no different.

Justin Fields is the quarterback for the Bears. The 23-year-old Ohio State alum entered the league in 2021 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 5 games and thrown for 679 yards with a completion percentage of 55.7 percent. Justin Fields has thrown 3 touchdowns despite 4 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 73.1.

His main target will be Darnell Mooney. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 25-year-old target. He has made 10 receptions to date on 21 targets, a catch percentage of 47.6%, for a total of 173 yards. Darnell Mooney is averaging 17.3 yards per catch with 0 touchdowns thus far. Justin Fields will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Bears running game is lead by the 25-year-old David Montgomery. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 47 carries and rushed for 179 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 44.8 YPG, a number that you know Matt Eberflus would love to see him exceed in this game. David Montgomery has 1 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.

Overall, the Chicago Bears offense ranks 29 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -18.6%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 29 with a Passing DVOA of -12.1%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -17.1%, ranking #30 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.583 with 7 Red Zone touchdowns in 12 attempts.

Chicago Bears Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Bears have a Defense DVOA of 4.1%, ranking 18 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #15 at 0.1% and they’ll need them to show up against Carson Wentz. The Matt Eberflus-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 0.1%, #15 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Cairo Santos who has made 7 of 7 field goals this season, a 100.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 51 yards. The Chicago Bears fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Washington Commanders Offense:

The Commanders are on the road for this one. Ron Rivera’s squad is 1-4-0 this season after going 7-10 last year. He has been at the helm since 2020 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Washington Commanders have a betting line of pk or you could bet them straight up at -110.

30-year-old Carson Wentz will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2016 after playing his college days at North Dakota State. Carson Wentz has a quarterback rating of 86 on 10 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. He’s started 5 games and thrown for 1390yards, a completion percentage of 62.9.

Antonio Gibson is the lead back for the Commanders running game. The 24-year-old has taken 56 carries and rushed for 179 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 35.8 YPG and he has scored 2 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.

On the passing front, Carson Wentz will look to target Terry McLaurin against the Ron Rivera defense. Terry McLaurin has 1 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 33 times and made 19 catches for 326 yards. Terry McLaurin has a catch percentage of 57.6% and his yards per reception is 17.2.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Washington Commanders offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -19.2% which ranks at number 30 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -14.0%, the number 31 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 28 with a Rush DVOA total of -8.8%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 7 Red Zone touchdowns on 12 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.583.

Washington Commanders Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Joey Slye to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 50 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Joey Slye has made 2 field goals on 50 attempts, a field goal percentage of 100.0%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Commanders with a Defensive DVOA of 4.2% which ranks at 19/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #15 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 0.1%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 0.5% DVOA which ranks at #15.

Key Match-ups:

  • Justin Fields QB Rating of 73.1 vs. Washington Commanders Pass DVOA Defense of -14.0%
    The Commanders have 1 interceptions this year and 14 sacks. They are allowing 25.6 points per game.
  • David Montgomery vs. Washington Commanders number 28 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 4.2 yards per carry against the the Washington Commanders and 110.6 per game.
  • Carson Wentz QB Rating of 86 vs. Chicago Bears #15 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Bears defense has allowed 21.2 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 8 times and picked him off 5 times.
  • Antonio Gibson vs. Chicago Bears 8.1% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Bears are giving up 170 YPG on 4.9 per carry thus far this season.

Commanders/Bears Bettting Stats:

Commanders Against the spread: 1-3-0
Commanders Over/Under: 2-2-0

Bears Against the spread: 1-2-1
Bears Over/Under: 1-3-0

The best bet is Chicago Bears pk and Under 37½.