Rams vs. 49ers: Week 3 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 28 September 2022

The 1-2-0 San Francisco 49ers host the 2-1-0 Los Angeles Rams at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California. The 49ers have a point spread of -1 with a money line of -120. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 42 points.

Los Angeles Rams San Francisco 49ers

Los Angeles Rams (+1)

Record: 2-1-0
Points Per Game: 20.3
Points Allowed Per Game: 23.3

San Francisco 49ers (-1)

Record: 1-2-0
Points Per Game: 15.7
Points Allowed Per Game: 12.3

San Francisco 49ers Offense:

The 49ers are coached by Kyle Shanahan who has been with the team since 2017. They have a current season record of 1-2-0 after going 10-7 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Kyle Shanahan is no different.

Jimmy Garoppolo is the quarterback for the 49ers. The 31-year-old Eastern Illinois University alum entered the league in 2014 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 1 games and thrown for 365 yards with a completion percentage of 62 percent. Jimmy Garoppolo has thrown 2 touchdowns despite 1 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 89.2.

His main target will be Deebo Samuel. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 26-year-old target. He has made 12 receptions to date on 21 targets, a catch percentage of 57.1%, for a total of 131 yards. Deebo Samuel is averaging 10.9 yards per catch with 0 touchdowns thus far. Jimmy Garoppolo will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The 49ers running game is lead by the 24-year-old Elijah Mitchell. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 6 carries and rushed for 41 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 41 YPG, a number that you know Kyle Shanahan would love to see him exceed in this game. Elijah Mitchell has 0 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.

Overall, the San Francisco 49ers offense ranks 23 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -12.0%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 21 with a Passing DVOA of -2.6%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 3.9%, ranking #19 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.444 with 4 Red Zone touchdowns in 9 attempts.

San Francisco 49ers Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the 49ers have a Defense DVOA of -28.5%, ranking 3 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #2 at -7.6% and they’ll need them to show up against Matthew Stafford. The Kyle Shanahan-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -7.6%, #5 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Robbie Gould who has made 4 of 5 field goals this season, a 80.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 51 yards. The San Francisco 49ers fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Los Angeles Rams Offense:

The Rams are on the road for this one. Sean McVay’s squad is 2-1-0 this season after going 12-5 last year. He has been at the helm since 2017 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Los Angeles Rams have a betting line of +1 or you could bet them straight up at +100.

34-year-old Matthew Stafford will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2009 after playing his college days at Georgia. Matthew Stafford has a quarterback rating of 86.3 on 4 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. He’s started 3 games and thrown for 761yards, a completion percentage of 72.5.

Cam Akers is the lead back for the Rams running game. The 23-year-old has taken 30 carries and rushed for 105 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 35 YPG and he has scored 1 touchdowns with 1 fumbles.

On the passing front, Matthew Stafford will look to target Cooper Kupp against the Sean McVay defense. Cooper Kupp has 3 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 35 times and made 28 catches for 280 yards. Cooper Kupp has a catch percentage of 80.0% and his yards per reception is 10.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Los Angeles Rams offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -6.1% which ranks at number 18 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 4.0%, the number 11 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 16 with a Rush DVOA total of 5.2%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 6 Red Zone touchdowns on 10 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.6.

Los Angeles Rams Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Matt Gay to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 57 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Matt Gay has made 4 field goals on 57 attempts, a field goal percentage of 100.0%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Rams with a Defensive DVOA of -0.3% which ranks at 16/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #2 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -7.6%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -3.3% DVOA which ranks at #5.

Key Match-ups:

  • Jimmy Garoppolo QB Rating of 89.2 vs. Los Angeles Rams Pass DVOA Defense of 4.0%
    The Rams have 4 interceptions this year and 7 sacks. They are allowing 23.3 points per game.
  • Elijah Mitchell vs. Los Angeles Rams number 16 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 3.8 yards per carry against the the Los Angeles Rams and 93.7 per game.
  • Matthew Stafford QB Rating of 86.3 vs. San Francisco 49ers #2 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The 49ers defense has allowed 12.3 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 8 times and picked him off 3 times.
  • Cam Akers vs. San Francisco 49ers -24.7% DVOA Rush Defense
    The 49ers are giving up 78.7 YPG on 2.8 per carry thus far this season.

Rams/49ers Bettting Stats:

Rams Against the spread: 1-2-0
Rams Over/Under: 1-2-0

49ers Against the spread: 1-2-0
49ers Over/Under: 0-3-0

The best bet is San Francisco 49ers -1 and Under 42.