Steelers vs. Bills: Week 5 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 4 October 2022

The 3-1-0 Buffalo Bills host the 1-3-0 Pittsburgh Steelers at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. The Bills have a point spread of -14 with a money line of -900. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 47 points.

Pittsburgh Steelers Buffalo Bills

Pittsburgh Steelers (14)

Record: 1-3-0
Points Per Game: 18.5
Points Allowed Per Game: 22.5

Buffalo Bills (-14)

Record: 3-1-0
Points Per Game: 28.5
Points Allowed Per Game: 14.5

Buffalo Bills Offense:

The Bills are coached by Sean McDermott who has been with the team since 2017. They have a current season record of 3-1-0 after going 11-6 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Sean McDermott is no different.

Josh Allen is the quarterback for the Bills. The 26-year-old Wyoming alum entered the league in 2018 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 4 games and thrown for 1227 yards with a completion percentage of 67.3 percent. Josh Allen has thrown 10 touchdowns despite 3 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 101.

His main target will be Stefon Diggs. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 29-year-old target. He has made 31 receptions to date on 41 targets, a catch percentage of 75.6%, for a total of 406 yards. Stefon Diggs is averaging 13.1 yards per catch with 4 touchdowns thus far. Josh Allen will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Bills running game is lead by the 25-year-old Devin Singletary. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 34 carries and rushed for 129 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 32.3 YPG, a number that you know Sean McDermott would love to see him exceed in this game. Devin Singletary has 0 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.

Overall, the Buffalo Bills offense ranks 10 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 10.0%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 4 with a Passing DVOA of 9.9%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 36.4%, ranking #5 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.643 with 9 Red Zone touchdowns in 14 attempts.

Buffalo Bills Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Bills have a Defense DVOA of -28.0%, ranking 2 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #1 at -11.9% and they’ll need them to show up against Mitchell Trubisky. The Sean McDermott-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -11.9%, #1 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Tyler Bass who has made 7 of 8 field goals this season, a 87.5% field goal percentage, with a long of 49 yards. The Buffalo Bills fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Pittsburgh Steelers Offense:

The Steelers are on the road for this one. Mike Tomlin’s squad is 1-3-0 this season after going 9-7 last year. He has been at the helm since 2007 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Pittsburgh Steelers have a betting line of 14 or you could bet them straight up at 640.

28-year-old Mitchell Trubisky will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2017 after playing his college days at North Carolina. Mitchell Trubisky has a quarterback rating of 73.7 on 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He’s started 4 games and thrown for 653yards, a completion percentage of 59.5.

Najee Harris is the lead back for the Steelers running game. The 24-year-old has taken 58 carries and rushed for 202 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 50.5 YPG and he has scored 1 touchdowns with 1 fumbles.

On the passing front, Mitchell Trubisky will look to target Diontae Johnson against the Mike Tomlin defense. Diontae Johnson has 0 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 37 times and made 23 catches for 207 yards. Diontae Johnson has a catch percentage of 62.2% and his yards per reception is 9.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Pittsburgh Steelers offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -10.3% which ranks at number 25 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -6.2%, the number 25 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 26 with a Rush DVOA total of -6.9%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 6 Red Zone touchdowns on 9 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.667.

Pittsburgh Steelers Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Chris Boswell to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 59 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Chris Boswell has made 8 field goals on 59 attempts, a field goal percentage of 80.0%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Steelers with a Defensive DVOA of -3.1% which ranks at 10/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #1 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -11.9%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -3.1% DVOA which ranks at #1.

Key Match-ups:

  • Josh Allen QB Rating of 101 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Pass DVOA Defense of -6.2%
    The Steelers have 7 interceptions this year and 10 sacks. They are allowing 22.5 points per game.
  • Devin Singletary vs. Pittsburgh Steelers number 26 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 4 yards per carry against the the Pittsburgh Steelers and 131.5 per game.
  • Mitchell Trubisky QB Rating of 73.7 vs. Buffalo Bills #1 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Bills defense has allowed 14.5 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 13 times and picked him off 7 times.
  • Najee Harris vs. Buffalo Bills -38.0% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Bills are giving up 83.8 YPG on 3.5 per carry thus far this season.

Steelers/Bills Bettting Stats:

Steelers Against the spread: 1-2-1
Steelers Over/Under: 2-2-0

Bills Against the spread: 2-2-0
Bills Over/Under: 1-3-0

The best bet is Buffalo Bills -14 and Under 47.