Lions vs. Patriots: Week 5 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 4 October 2022

The 1-3-0 New England Patriots host the 1-3-0 Detroit Lions at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. The Patriots have a point spread of -3 with a money line of -150. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 46½ points.

Detroit Lions New England Patriots

Detroit Lions (3)

Record: 1-3-0
Points Per Game: 35
Points Allowed Per Game: 35.3

New England Patriots (-3)

Record: 1-3-0
Points Per Game: 18.5
Points Allowed Per Game: 24.5

New England Patriots Offense:

The Patriots are coached by Bill Belichick who has been with the team since 2000. They have a current season record of 1-3-0 after going 10-7 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Bill Belichick is no different.

Mac Jones is the quarterback for the Patriots. The 24-year-old Alabama alum entered the league in 2021 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 3 games and thrown for 786 yards with a completion percentage of 66 percent. Mac Jones has thrown 2 touchdowns despite 5 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 76.2.

His main target will be Jakobi Meyers. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 26-year-old target. He has made 13 receptions to date on 19 targets, a catch percentage of 68.4%, for a total of 150 yards. Jakobi Meyers is averaging 11.5 yards per catch with 0 touchdowns thus far. Mac Jones will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Patriots running game is lead by the 25-year-old Damien Harris. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 53 carries and rushed for 246 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 61.5 YPG, a number that you know Bill Belichick would love to see him exceed in this game. Damien Harris has 3 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.

Overall, the New England Patriots offense ranks 18 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -0.5%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 16 with a Passing DVOA of 0.7%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -11.1%, ranking #28 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.545 with 6 Red Zone touchdowns in 11 attempts.

New England Patriots Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Patriots have a Defense DVOA of 4.3%, ranking 19 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #23 at 2.9% and they’ll need them to show up against Jared Goff. The Bill Belichick-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 2.9%, #10 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Nick Folk who has made 4 of 5 field goals this season, a 80.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 50 yards. The New England Patriots fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Detroit Lions Offense:

The Lions are on the road for this one. Dan Campbell’s squad is 1-3-0 this season after going 3-13-1 last year. He has been at the helm since 2021 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Detroit Lions have a betting line of 3 or you could bet them straight up at 130.

28-year-old Jared Goff will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2016 after playing his college days at California. Jared Goff has a quarterback rating of 99.9 on 11 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He’s started 4 games and thrown for 1126yards, a completion percentage of 60.9.

D’Andre Swift is the lead back for the Lions running game. The 23-year-old has taken 27 carries and rushed for 231 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 77 YPG and he has scored 1 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.

On the passing front, Jared Goff will look to target Amon-Ra St. Brown against the Dan Campbell defense. Amon-Ra St. Brown has 3 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 33 times and made 23 catches for 253 yards. Amon-Ra St. Brown has a catch percentage of 69.7% and his yards per reception is 11.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Detroit Lions offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 15.0% which ranks at number 7 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 1.7%, the number 12 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 12 with a Rush DVOA total of 24.0%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 15 Red Zone touchdowns on 17 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.882.

Detroit Lions Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Riley Patterson to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 52 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Riley Patterson has made 7 field goals on 52 attempts, a field goal percentage of 87.5%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Lions with a Defensive DVOA of 18.8% which ranks at 32/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #23 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 2.9%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 7.1% DVOA which ranks at #10.

Key Match-ups:

  • Mac Jones QB Rating of 76.2 vs. Detroit Lions Pass DVOA Defense of 1.7%
    The Lions have 1 interceptions this year and 7 sacks. They are allowing 35.3 points per game.
  • Damien Harris vs. Detroit Lions number 12 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 5.6 yards per carry against the the Detroit Lions and 165.5 per game.
  • Jared Goff QB Rating of 99.9 vs. New England Patriots #23 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Patriots defense has allowed 24.5 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 11 times and picked him off 3 times.
  • D’Andre Swift vs. New England Patriots -2.7% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Patriots are giving up 135.8 YPG on 5.1 per carry thus far this season.

Lions/Patriots Bettting Stats:

Lions Against the spread: 3-1-0
Lions Over/Under: 4-0-0

Patriots Against the spread: 1-2-1
Patriots Over/Under: 2-2-0

The best bet is Detroit Lions 3 and Over 46½.