Colts vs. Broncos: Week 5 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 4 October 2022

The 2-2-0 Denver Broncos host the 1-2-1 Indianapolis Colts at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado. The Broncos have a point spread of -3½ with a money line of -175. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 43½ points.

Indianapolis Colts Denver Broncos

Indianapolis Colts (3½)

Record: 1-2-1
Points Per Game: 14.3
Points Allowed Per Game: 21.3

Denver Broncos (-3½)

Record: 2-2-0
Points Per Game: 16.5
Points Allowed Per Game: 17

Denver Broncos Offense:

The Broncos are coached by Nathaniel Hackett who has been with the team since 2022. They have a current season record of 2-2-0 after going 7-10 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Nathaniel Hackett is no different.

Russell Wilson is the quarterback for the Broncos. The 34-year-old Wisconsin alum entered the league in 2012 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 4 games and thrown for 980 yards with a completion percentage of 61.1 percent. Russell Wilson has thrown 4 touchdowns despite 1 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 91.1.

His main target will be Courtland Sutton. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 27-year-old target. He has made 24 receptions to date on 35 targets, a catch percentage of 68.6%, for a total of 343 yards. Courtland Sutton is averaging 14.3 yards per catch with 1 touchdowns thus far. Russell Wilson will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Broncos running game is lead by the 29-year-old Melvin Gordon. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 37 carries and rushed for 139 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 34.8 YPG, a number that you know Nathaniel Hackett would love to see him exceed in this game. Melvin Gordon has 1 touchdowns this season and 4 fumbles.

Overall, the Denver Broncos offense ranks 24 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -10.3%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 15 with a Passing DVOA of 0.8%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 11.5%, ranking #17 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.3 with 3 Red Zone touchdowns in 10 attempts.

Denver Broncos Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Broncos have a Defense DVOA of -10.9%, ranking 8 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #12 at -1.5% and they’ll need them to show up against Matt Ryan. The Nathaniel Hackett-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -1.5%, #6 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Brandon McManus who has made 8 of 10 field goals this season, a 80.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 55 yards. The Denver Broncos fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Indianapolis Colts Offense:

The Colts are on the road for this one. Frank Reich’s squad is 1-2-1 this season after going 9-8 last year. He has been at the helm since 2018 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Indianapolis Colts have a betting line of 3½ or you could bet them straight up at 155.

37-year-old Matt Ryan will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2008 after playing his college days at Boston College. Matt Ryan has a quarterback rating of 85 on 5 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. He’s started 4 games and thrown for 1125yards, a completion percentage of 66.2.

Jonathan Taylor is the lead back for the Colts running game. The 23-year-old has taken 81 carries and rushed for 328 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 82 YPG and he has scored 1 touchdowns with 1 fumbles.

On the passing front, Matt Ryan will look to target Michael Pittman Jr. against the Frank Reich defense. Michael Pittman Jr. has 1 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 28 times and made 20 catches for 224 yards. Michael Pittman Jr. has a catch percentage of 71.4% and his yards per reception is 11.2.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Indianapolis Colts offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -30.0% which ranks at number 32 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -11.0%, the number 28 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 30 with a Rush DVOA total of -21.2%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 6 Red Zone touchdowns on 13 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.462.

Indianapolis Colts Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Rodrigo Blankenship to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 45 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Rodrigo Blankenship has made 2 field goals on 45 attempts, a field goal percentage of 66.7%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Colts with a Defensive DVOA of 0.8% which ranks at 13/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #12 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -1.5%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 1.8% DVOA which ranks at #6.

Key Match-ups:

  • Russell Wilson QB Rating of 91.1 vs. Indianapolis Colts Pass DVOA Defense of -11.0%
    The Colts have 1 interceptions this year and 7 sacks. They are allowing 21.3 points per game.
  • Melvin Gordon vs. Indianapolis Colts number 30 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 3.1 yards per carry against the the Indianapolis Colts and 89.5 per game.
  • Matt Ryan QB Rating of 85 vs. Denver Broncos #12 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Broncos defense has allowed 17 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 11 times and picked him off 1 times.
  • Jonathan Taylor vs. Denver Broncos -16.0% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Broncos are giving up 114 YPG on 4.9 per carry thus far this season.

Colts/Broncos Bettting Stats:

Colts Against the spread: 1-3-0
Colts Over/Under: 0-4-0

Broncos Against the spread: 1-3-0
Broncos Over/Under: 1-3-0

The best bet is Denver Broncos -3½ and Under 43½.