Bengals vs. Ravens: Week 5 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 4 October 2022

The 2-2-0 Baltimore Ravens host the 2-2-0 Cincinnati Bengals at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland. The Ravens have a point spread of -3 with a money line of -165. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 48½ points.

Cincinnati Bengals Baltimore Ravens

Cincinnati Bengals (3)

Record: 2-2-0
Points Per Game: 22.8
Points Allowed Per Game: 17.5

Baltimore Ravens (-3)

Record: 2-2-0
Points Per Game: 29.8
Points Allowed Per Game: 25

Baltimore Ravens Offense:

The Ravens are coached by John Harbaugh who has been with the team since 2008. They have a current season record of 2-2-0 after going 8-9 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly John Harbaugh is no different.

Lamar Jackson is the quarterback for the Ravens. The 25-year-old Louisville alum entered the league in 2018 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 4 games and thrown for 893 yards with a completion percentage of 65 percent. Lamar Jackson has thrown 11 touchdowns despite 4 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 105.1.

His main target will be Rashod Bateman. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 23-year-old target. He has made 11 receptions to date on 22 targets, a catch percentage of 50.0%, for a total of 243 yards. Rashod Bateman is averaging 22.1 yards per catch with 2 touchdowns thus far. Lamar Jackson will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Ravens running game is lead by the 28-year-old Kenyan Drake. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 17 carries and rushed for 39 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 19.5 YPG, a number that you know John Harbaugh would love to see him exceed in this game. Kenyan Drake has 0 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.

Overall, the Baltimore Ravens offense ranks 1 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 23.1%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 5 with a Passing DVOA of 9.4%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 53.5%, ranking #1 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.714 with 10 Red Zone touchdowns in 14 attempts.

Baltimore Ravens Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Ravens have a Defense DVOA of 2.7%, ranking 16 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #13 at -1.1% and they’ll need them to show up against Joe Burrow. The John Harbaugh-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -1.1%, #14 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Justin Tucker who has made 5 of 5 field goals this season, a 100.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 56 yards. The Baltimore Ravens fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Cincinnati Bengals Offense:

The Bengals are on the road for this one. Zac Taylor’s squad is 2-2-0 this season after going 10-7 last year. He has been at the helm since 2019 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Cincinnati Bengals have a betting line of 3 or you could bet them straight up at 145.

26-year-old Joe Burrow will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2020 after playing his college days at LSU. Joe Burrow has a quarterback rating of 91.3 on 8 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He’s started 4 games and thrown for 1099yards, a completion percentage of 64.1.

Joe Mixon is the lead back for the Bengals running game. The 26-year-old has taken 82 carries and rushed for 224 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 56 YPG and he has scored 1 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.

On the passing front, Joe Burrow will look to target Ja’Marr Chase against the Zac Taylor defense. Ja’Marr Chase has 2 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 41 times and made 25 catches for 293 yards. Ja’Marr Chase has a catch percentage of 61.0% and his yards per reception is 11.7.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Cincinnati Bengals offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -14.5% which ranks at number 27 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -0.6%, the number 17 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 20 with a Rush DVOA total of 2.4%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 7 Red Zone touchdowns on 13 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.538.

Cincinnati Bengals Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Evan McPherson to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 59 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Evan McPherson has made 9 field goals on 59 attempts, a field goal percentage of 81.8%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Bengals with a Defensive DVOA of -12.1% which ranks at 7/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #13 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -1.1%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -3.7% DVOA which ranks at #14.

Key Match-ups:

  • Lamar Jackson QB Rating of 105.1 vs. Cincinnati Bengals Pass DVOA Defense of -0.6%
    The Bengals have 4 interceptions this year and 7 sacks. They are allowing 17.5 points per game.
  • Kenyan Drake vs. Cincinnati Bengals number 20 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 3.8 yards per carry against the the Cincinnati Bengals and 85.8 per game.
  • Joe Burrow QB Rating of 91.3 vs. Baltimore Ravens #13 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Ravens defense has allowed 25 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 8 times and picked him off 7 times.
  • Joe Mixon vs. Baltimore Ravens 4.7% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Ravens are giving up 109.8 YPG on 5 per carry thus far this season.

Bengals/Ravens Bettting Stats:

Bengals Against the spread: 2-2-0
Bengals Over/Under: 0-4-0

Ravens Against the spread: 3-1-0
Ravens Over/Under: 2-2-0

The best bet is Baltimore Ravens -3 and Under 48½.