The 3-1-0 Minnesota Vikings host the 2-2-0 Chicago Bears at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Vikings have a point spread of -7 with a money line of -325. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 44 points.
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Chicago Bears (7)Record: 2-2-0 |
Minnesota Vikings (-7)Record: 3-1-0 |
Minnesota Vikings Offense:
The Vikings are coached by Kevin O’Connell who has been with the team since 2022. They have a current season record of 3-1-0 after going 8-9 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Kevin O’Connell is no different.
Kirk Cousins is the quarterback for the Vikings. The 34-year-old Michigan State alum entered the league in 2012 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 4 games and thrown for 1031 yards with a completion percentage of 63.1 percent. Kirk Cousins has thrown 6 touchdowns despite 4 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 84.1.
His main target will be Justin Jefferson. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 23-year-old target. He has made 28 receptions to date on 42 targets, a catch percentage of 66.7%, for a total of 393 yards. Justin Jefferson is averaging 14 yards per catch with 2 touchdowns thus far. Kirk Cousins will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Vikings running game is lead by the 27-year-old Dalvin Cook. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 63 carries and rushed for 279 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 69.8 YPG, a number that you know Kevin O’Connell would love to see him exceed in this game. Dalvin Cook has 1 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.
Overall, the Minnesota Vikings offense ranks 13 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 5.2%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 9 with a Passing DVOA of 5.8%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 14.5%, ranking #15 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.467 with 7 Red Zone touchdowns in 15 attempts.
Minnesota Vikings Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Vikings have a Defense DVOA of 10.2%, ranking 26 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #26 at 3.9% and they’ll need them to show up against Justin Fields. The Kevin O’Connell-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 3.9%, #20 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Greg Joseph who has made 8 of 10 field goals this season, a 80.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 56 yards. The Minnesota Vikings fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Chicago Bears Offense:
The Bears are on the road for this one. Matt Eberflus’s squad is 2-2-0 this season after going 6-11 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Chicago Bears have a betting line of 7 or you could bet them straight up at 270.
23-year-old Justin Fields will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2021 after playing his college days at Ohio State. Justin Fields has a quarterback rating of 58.7 on 2 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He’s started 4 games and thrown for 471yards, a completion percentage of 50.7.
Khalil Herbert is the lead back for the Bears running game. The 24-year-old has taken 52 carries and rushed for 317 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 79.3 YPG and he has scored 3 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.
On the passing front, Justin Fields will look to target Darnell Mooney against the Matt Eberflus defense. Darnell Mooney has 0 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 16 times and made 8 catches for 121 yards. Darnell Mooney has a catch percentage of 50.0% and his yards per reception is 15.1.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Chicago Bears offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -18.7% which ranks at number 29 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -11.6%, the number 30 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 32 with a Rush DVOA total of -33.9%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 5 Red Zone touchdowns on 10 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.5.
Chicago Bears Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Cairo Santos to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 50 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Cairo Santos has made 4 field goals on 50 attempts, a field goal percentage of 100.0%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Bears with a Defensive DVOA of 2.5% which ranks at 15/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #26 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 3.9%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -0.6% DVOA which ranks at #20.
Key Match-ups:
- Kirk Cousins QB Rating of 84.1 vs. Chicago Bears Pass DVOA Defense of -11.6%
The Bears have 4 interceptions this year and 7 sacks. They are allowing 19.3 points per game. - Dalvin Cook vs. Chicago Bears number 32 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 5.1 yards per carry against the the Chicago Bears and 183.3 per game. - Justin Fields QB Rating of 58.7 vs. Minnesota Vikings #26 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Vikings defense has allowed 20 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 9 times and picked him off 3 times. - Khalil Herbert vs. Minnesota Vikings 11.6% DVOA Rush Defense
The Vikings are giving up 131 YPG on 4.6 per carry thus far this season.
Bears/Vikings Bettting Stats:
Bears Against the spread: 1-2-1
Bears Over/Under: 1-3-0
Vikings Against the spread: 1-3-0
Vikings Over/Under: 2-2-0
The best bet is Minnesota Vikings -7 and Under 44.