Dolphins vs. Patriots: Week 2 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 15 September 2023

The 0-1-0 New England Patriots host the 1-0-0 Miami Dolphins at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. The New England Patriots have a point spread of +3 with a money line of -115. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 46½ points.

&The New England Patriots are coached by Bill Belichick who has been with the team since 2000. They have a current season record of 0-1-0 after going 8-9 last season. All coaches want big games from their defense andBill Belichick is no different.

The New England Patriots are coached by Bill Belichick who has been with the team since 2000. They have a current season record of 0-1-0 after going 8-9 last season. All coaches want big games from their defense andBill Belichick is no different.

Mac Jones is the quarterback for the New England Patriots. The 25-year-old Alabama alum entered the league in 2021 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 1 games and throw for 316 yards with a completion percentage of 64.8 percent. Mac Jones has thrown 3 touchdowns against 1 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 91.3.

His main target will be Jakobi Meyers. The home crowd would love to see some fireworks from the 27-year-old target. He has made 9 receptions to date on 10 targets, a catch percentage of 0.9, for a total of 81 yards. Jakobi Meyers is averaging 9 yards per catch with 2 touchdowns thus far. Mac Jones will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The New England Patriots running game is lead by the 25-year-old Rhamondre Stevenson. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 12 carries and rushed for 25 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 25 yards per game, a number that you know Bill Belichick would love to see him exceed in this game. Rhamondre Stevenson has 0 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.

Their kicker is Nick Folk who has made 5 of 5 field goals this season, a 1 field goal percentage, with a long of 50 yards. The New England Patriots fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit one if needed.

Overall, the New England Patriots offense ranks 14 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 0.0868577391668574, per FootballOutsiders. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.6 with 3 Red Zone touchdowns in 5 attempts.

On the defensive end, the New England Patriots have a Defense DVOA of 0.00562537416340976, ranking 17 in the league.

The Miami Dolphins are on the road for this one. Mike McDaniel’s squad is 1-0-0 this season after going 9-8 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Miami Dolphins have a betting line of +3 or you could bet them straight up at -115.

25-year-old Tua Tagovailoa will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2020 after playing his college days at Alabama. Tua Tagovailoa has a quarterback rating of 110 on 3 touchdowns and 1 interceptions. He’s started 1 games and thrown for 466, a completion percentage of 62.2.

The Miami Dolphins will look to get the running game going in this match-up and to do that they’ll need a big game from Raheem Mostert. The 31-year-old back has rushed for 1 touchdowns thus far this season and he’ll look to take it to the house again against the New England Patriots. He’s taken the hand-off 10 times and added 37 yards for the offense. Raheem Mostert is averaging 37 yards per game for the season and has lost the ball 0 times. A turnover on the road could be seen as unacceptable for Mike McDaniel so he’ll need to protect the ball here.

On the passing front, Tua Tagovailoa will look to target Tyreek Hill against the Mike McDaniel defense. Tyreek Hill has 2 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 15 times and made 11 catches for 215 yards. Tyreek Hill has a catch percentage of 0.733 and his yards per reception is 19.5.

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Jason Sanders to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 45 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Jason Sanders has made 3 field goals on 45 attempts, a field goal percentage of 1.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Miami Dolphins offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 0.64705759281208 which ranks at number 1 out of thirty two teams. If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 3 Red Zone touchdowns on 5 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.6.

Key Match-ups:

  • Mac Jones QB Rating of 91.3 vs. Miami Dolphins Defensive Passing YPG of 200
    Miami Dolphins have 8 interceptions this year and 3 sacks. They are allowing 23.4705882352941 points per game.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson vs. Miami Dolphins number 31 ranked DVOA Defense
    Opponents are averaging 4.1 yards per carry against Miami Dolphins and 103 per game.
  • Tua Tagovailoa QB Rating of 110 vs. New England Patriots Pass Defense
  • The New England Patriots defense has allowed 20.4117647058824 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 3 times and picked him off 19 times.
  • Raheem Mostert vs. New England Patriots Defense
    New England Patriots is giving up 105.470588235294 yards per game on 4.1 per carry thus far this season.