Bills vs. Jets: Week 1 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 7 September 2023

The 0-0 New York Jets host the 0-0 Buffalo Bills at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The New York Jets have a point spread of +2½ with a money line of -106. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 45½ points.

&The New York Jets are coached by Robert Saleh who had been with the team since 2021. They have a current season record of 0-0 after going 7-10 last season. All coaches want big games from their defense and Robert Saleh is no different.

The New York Jets are coached by Robert Saleh who had been with the team since 2021. They have a current season record of 0-0 after going 7-10 last season. All coaches want big games from their defense and Robert Saleh is no different.

Aaron Rodgers is the quarterback for the New York Jets. The 39-year-old California alum entered the league in 2005 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Last season he had started 17 games and throw for 3695 yards with a completion percentage of 64.6 percent. Aaron Rodgers had thrown 26 touchdowns against 12 interceptions and had a QB Rating of 91.1.

His main target will be Garrett Wilson. The home crowd would love to see some fireworks from the 22-year-old target. He had made 83 receptions to date on 147 targets, a catch percentage of 0.565, for a total of 1103 yards. Garrett Wilson is averaged 13.3 yards per catch with 4 touchdowns thus far. Aaron Rodgers will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The New York Jets running game is lead by the 27-year-old Dalvin Cook. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 264 carries and rushed for 1173 yards Last season. His yards per game currently sits at 69 yards per game, a number that you know Robert Saleh would love to see him exceed in this game. Dalvin Cook had 8 touchdowns last season and 4 fumbles.

Their kicker is Greg Zuerlein who had made 30 of 37 field goals last season, a 0.811 field goal percentage, with a long of 60 yards. The New York Jets fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit one if needed.

Overall, the New York Jets offense ranks 10 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 0.049, per FootballOutsiders. last season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.435 with 20 Red Zone touchdowns in 46 attempts.

On the defensive end, the New York Jets have a Defense DVOA of -0.071, ranking 2 in the league.

The Buffalo Bills are on the road for this one. Sean McDermott’s squad is 0-0 this season after going 13-3 last year. He had been at the helm since 2017 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Buffalo Bills have a betting line of +2½ or you could bet them straight up at -106.

26-year-old Josh Allen will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2018 after playing his college days at Wyoming. Josh Allen had a quarterback rating of 96.6 on 35 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. He’s started 16 games and thrown for 4283, a completion percentage of 63.3.

The Buffalo Bills will look to get the running game going in this match-up and to do that they’ll need a big game from James Cook. The 23-year-old back had rushed for 2 touchdowns Last season and he’ll look to take it to the house again against the New York Jets. He’s taken the hand-off 89 times and added 507 yards for the offense. James Cook is averaged 31.7 yards per game for the season and had lost the ball 1 times. A turnover on the road could be seen as unacceptable for Sean McDermott so he’ll need to protect the ball here.

On the passing front, Josh Allen will look to target Stefon Diggs against the Sean McDermott defense. Stefon Diggs had 11 touchdowns Last season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 154 times and made 108 catches for 1429 yards. Stefon Diggs had a catch percentage of 0.701 and his yards per reception is 13.2.

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Tyler Bass to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 56 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Tyler Bass had made 27 field goals on 56 attempts, a field goal percentage of 0.871.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Buffalo Bills offense had a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 0.027 which ranks at number 15 out of thirty two teams. If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 35 Red Zone touchdowns on 58 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.603.

Key Match-ups:

  • Aaron Rodgers QB Rating of 91.1 vs. Buffalo Bills Defensive Passing YPG of 214.6
    Buffalo Bills have 17 interceptions this year and 40 sacks. They are allowing 17.875 points per game.
  • Dalvin Cook vs. Buffalo Bills number 1 ranked DVOA Defense
    Opponents are averaged 4.3 yards per carry against Buffalo Bills and 104.5625 per game.
  • Josh Allen QB Rating of 96.6 vs. New York Jets Pass Defense
  • The New York Jets defense had allowed 18.5882352941177 points per game Last season. They have sacked the quarterback 45 times and picked him off 12 times.
  • James Cook vs. New York Jets Defense
    New York Jets is giving up 121.647058823529 yards per game on 4.2 per carry Last season.