Dolphins vs. Chargers: Week 1 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 7 September 2023

The 0-0 Los Angeles Chargers host the 0-0 Miami Dolphins at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. The Los Angeles Chargers have a point spread of -3 with a money line of -110. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 51½ points.

&The Los Angeles Chargers are coached by Brandon Staley who had been with the team since 2021. They have a current season record of 0-0 after going 10-7 last season. All coaches want big games from their defense and Brandon Staley is no different.

The Los Angeles Chargers are coached by Brandon Staley who had been with the team since 2021. They have a current season record of 0-0 after going 10-7 last season. All coaches want big games from their defense and Brandon Staley is no different.

Justin Herbert is the quarterback for the Los Angeles Chargers. The 24-year-old Oregon alum entered the league in 2020 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Last season he had started 17 games and throw for 4739 yards with a completion percentage of 68.2 percent. Justin Herbert had thrown 25 touchdowns against 10 interceptions and had a QB Rating of 93.2.

His main target will be Keenan Allen. The home crowd would love to see some fireworks from the 30-year-old target. He had made 66 receptions to date on 89 targets, a catch percentage of 0.742, for a total of 752 yards. Keenan Allen is averaged 11.4 yards per catch with 4 touchdowns thus far. Justin Herbert will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Los Angeles Chargers running game is lead by the 27-year-old Austin Ekeler. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 204 carries and rushed for 915 yards Last season. His yards per game currently sits at 53.8 yards per game, a number that you know Brandon Staley would love to see him exceed in this game. Austin Ekeler had 13 touchdowns last season and 5 fumbles.

Their kicker is Cameron Dicker who had made 21 of 22 field goals last season, a 0.955 field goal percentage, with a long of 48 yards. The Los Angeles Chargers fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit one if needed.

Overall, the Los Angeles Chargers offense ranks 22 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -0.02, per FootballOutsiders. last season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.532 with 33 Red Zone touchdowns in 62 attempts.

On the defensive end, the Los Angeles Chargers have a Defense DVOA of 0.079, ranking 30 in the league.

The Miami Dolphins are on the road for this one. Mike McDaniel’s squad is 0-0 this season after going 9-8 last year. He had been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Miami Dolphins have a betting line of -3 or you could bet them straight up at -110.

24-year-old Tua Tagovailoa will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2020 after playing his college days at Alabama. Tua Tagovailoa had a quarterback rating of 105.5 on 25 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. He’s started 13 games and thrown for 3548, a completion percentage of 64.8.

The Miami Dolphins will look to get the running game going in this match-up and to do that they’ll need a big game from Raheem Mostert. The 30-year-old back had rushed for 3 touchdowns Last season and he’ll look to take it to the house again against the Los Angeles Chargers. He’s taken the hand-off 181 times and added 891 yards for the offense. Raheem Mostert is averaged 55.7 yards per game for the season and had lost the ball 1 times. A turnover on the road could be seen as unacceptable for Mike McDaniel so he’ll need to protect the ball here.

On the passing front, Tua Tagovailoa will look to target Tyreek Hill against the Mike McDaniel defense. Tyreek Hill had 7 touchdowns Last season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 170 times and made 119 catches for 1710 yards. Tyreek Hill had a catch percentage of 0.7 and his yards per reception is 14.4.

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Jason Sanders to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 55 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Jason Sanders had made 26 field goals on 55 attempts, a field goal percentage of 0.813.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Miami Dolphins offense had a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 0.037 which ranks at number 14 out of thirty two teams. If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 30 Red Zone touchdowns on 50 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.6.

Key Match-ups:

  • Justin Herbert QB Rating of 93.2 vs. Miami Dolphins Defensive Passing YPG of 239.3
    Miami Dolphins have 8 interceptions this year and 40 sacks. They are allowing 23.4705882352941 points per game.
  • Austin Ekeler vs. Miami Dolphins number 13 ranked DVOA Defense
    Opponents are averaged 4.1 yards per carry against Miami Dolphins and 103 per game.
  • Tua Tagovailoa QB Rating of 105.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers Pass Defense
  • The Los Angeles Chargers defense had allowed 22.5882352941177 points per game Last season. They have sacked the quarterback 40 times and picked him off 14 times.
  • Raheem Mostert vs. Los Angeles Chargers Defense
    Los Angeles Chargers is giving up 145.764705882353 yards per game on 5.4 per carry Last season.