The 0-2-1 Houston Texans host the 1-2-0 Los Angeles Chargers at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. The Texans have a point spread of +5 with a money line of +200. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 44 points.
 |
 |
Los Angeles Chargers (-5)Record: 1-2-0 |
Houston Texans (+5)Record: 0-2-1 |
Houston Texans Offense:
The Texans are coached by Lovie Smith who has been with the team since 2022. They have a current season record of 0-2-1 after going 4-13 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Lovie Smith is no different.
Davis Mills is the quarterback for the Texans. The 24-year-old Stanford alum entered the league in 2021 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 3 games and thrown for 662 yards with a completion percentage of 57.9 percent. Davis Mills has thrown 3 touchdowns despite 2 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 77.7.
His main target will be Brandin Cooks. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 29-year-old target. He has made 13 receptions to date on 29 targets, a catch percentage of 44.8%, for a total of 158 yards. Brandin Cooks is averaging 12.2 yards per catch with 0 touchdowns thus far. Davis Mills will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Texans running game is lead by the 22-year-old Dameon Pierce. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 46 carries and rushed for 182 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 60.7 YPG, a number that you know Lovie Smith would love to see him exceed in this game. Dameon Pierce has 1 touchdowns this season and 2 fumbles.
Overall, the Houston Texans offense ranks 30 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -22.7%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 31 with a Passing DVOA of -11.3%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -14.5%, ranking #29 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.5 with 3 Red Zone touchdowns in 6 attempts.
Houston Texans Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Texans have a Defense DVOA of 0.3%, ranking 17 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #15 at -0.5% and they’ll need them to show up against Justin Herbert. The Lovie Smith-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -0.5%, #9 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Ka’imi Fairbairn who has made 7 of 7 field goals this season, a 100.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 45 yards. The Houston Texans fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Los Angeles Chargers Offense:
The Chargers are on the road for this one. Brandon Staley’s squad is 1-2-0 this season after going 9-8 last year. He has been at the helm since 2021 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Los Angeles Chargers have a betting line of -5 or you could bet them straight up at -240.
24-year-old Justin Herbert will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2020 after playing his college days at Oregon. Justin Herbert has a quarterback rating of 98.9 on 7 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He’s started 3 games and thrown for 910yards, a completion percentage of 66.1.
Austin Ekeler is the lead back for the Chargers running game. The 27-year-old has taken 32 carries and rushed for 80 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 26.7 YPG and he has scored 0 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.
On the passing front, Justin Herbert will look to target Keenan Allen against the Brandon Staley defense. Keenan Allen has 0 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 4 times and made 4 catches for 66 yards. Keenan Allen has a catch percentage of 100.0% and his yards per reception is 16.5.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Los Angeles Chargers offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 1.8% which ranks at number 14 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 5.1%, the number 10 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 10 with a Rush DVOA total of 27.8%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 6 Red Zone touchdowns on 11 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.545.
Los Angeles Chargers Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Dustin Hopkins to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 43 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Dustin Hopkins has made 3 field goals on 43 attempts, a field goal percentage of 75.0%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Chargers with a Defensive DVOA of -0.3% which ranks at 15/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #15 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -0.5%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -4.1% DVOA which ranks at #9.
Key Match-ups:
- Davis Mills QB Rating of 77.7 vs. Los Angeles Chargers Pass DVOA Defense of 5.1%
The Chargers have 3 interceptions this year and 7 sacks. They are allowing 28 points per game. - Dameon Pierce vs. Los Angeles Chargers number 10 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 4.6 yards per carry against the the Los Angeles Chargers and 102.7 per game. - Justin Herbert QB Rating of 98.9 vs. Houston Texans #15 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Texans defense has allowed 19.7 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 10 times and picked him off 4 times. - Austin Ekeler vs. Houston Texans -11.5% DVOA Rush Defense
The Texans are giving up 202.3 YPG on 5.6 per carry thus far this season.
Chargers/Texans Bettting Stats:
Chargers Against the spread: 2-1-0
Chargers Over/Under: 1-2-0
Texans Against the spread: 2-0-1
Texans Over/Under: 1-2-0
The best bet is Houston Texans +5 and Under 44.