Cardinals vs. Panthers: Week 4 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 28 September 2022

The 1-2-0 Carolina Panthers host the 1-2-0 Arizona Cardinals at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina. The Panthers have a point spread of -1 with a money line of -125. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 43 points.

Arizona Cardinals Carolina Panthers

Arizona Cardinals (+1)

Record: 1-2-0
Points Per Game: 20.7
Points Allowed Per Game: 29

Carolina Panthers (-1)

Record: 1-2-0
Points Per Game: 20.7
Points Allowed Per Game: 19.7

Carolina Panthers Offense:

The Panthers are coached by Matt Rhule who has been with the team since 2020. They have a current season record of 1-2-0 after going 5-12 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Matt Rhule is no different.

Baker Mayfield is the quarterback for the Panthers. The 27-year-old Oklahoma alum entered the league in 2018 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 3 games and thrown for 550 yards with a completion percentage of 51.9 percent. Baker Mayfield has thrown 3 touchdowns despite 1 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 80.8.

His main target will be D.J. Moore. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 25-year-old target. He has made 7 receptions to date on 18 targets, a catch percentage of 38.9%, for a total of 88 yards. D.J. Moore is averaging 12.6 yards per catch with 1 touchdowns thus far. Baker Mayfield will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Panthers running game is lead by the 26-year-old Christian McCaffrey. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 50 carries and rushed for 243 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 81 YPG, a number that you know Matt Rhule would love to see him exceed in this game. Christian McCaffrey has 1 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.

Overall, the Carolina Panthers offense ranks 25 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -12.8%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 28 with a Passing DVOA of -9.5%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -22.9%, ranking #30 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.375 with 3 Red Zone touchdowns in 8 attempts.

Carolina Panthers Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Panthers have a Defense DVOA of -0.9%, ranking 14 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #17 at 1.2% and they’ll need them to show up against Kyler Murray. The Matt Rhule-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 1.2%, #17 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Eddy Pineiro who has made 7 of 7 field goals this season, a 100.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 48 yards. The Carolina Panthers fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Arizona Cardinals Offense:

The Cardinals are on the road for this one. Kliff Kingsbury’s squad is 1-2-0 this season after going 11-6 last year. He has been at the helm since 2019 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Arizona Cardinals have a betting line of +1 or you could bet them straight up at +105.

25-year-old Kyler Murray will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2019 after playing his college days at Oklahoma. Kyler Murray has a quarterback rating of 82.6 on 3 touchdowns and 1 interceptions. He’s started 3 games and thrown for 784yards, a completion percentage of 63.8.

James Conner is the lead back for the Cardinals running game. The 27-year-old has taken 30 carries and rushed for 90 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 30 YPG and he has scored 1 touchdowns with 1 fumbles.

On the passing front, Kyler Murray will look to target Marquise Brown against the Kliff Kingsbury defense. Marquise Brown has 1 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 34 times and made 24 catches for 251 yards. Marquise Brown has a catch percentage of 70.6% and his yards per reception is 10.5.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Arizona Cardinals offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -8.9% which ranks at number 21 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -2.4%, the number 20 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 24 with a Rush DVOA total of -5.1%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 6 Red Zone touchdowns on 9 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.667.

Arizona Cardinals Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Matt Prater to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 49 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Matt Prater has made 4 field goals on 49 attempts, a field goal percentage of 100.0%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Cardinals with a Defensive DVOA of 22.0% which ranks at 31/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #17 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 1.2%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 6.9% DVOA which ranks at #17.

Key Match-ups:

  • Baker Mayfield QB Rating of 80.8 vs. Arizona Cardinals Pass DVOA Defense of -2.4%
    The Cardinals have 0 interceptions this year and 2 sacks. They are allowing 29 points per game.
  • Christian McCaffrey vs. Arizona Cardinals number 24 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 4.5 yards per carry against the the Arizona Cardinals and 102.7 per game.
  • Kyler Murray QB Rating of 82.6 vs. Carolina Panthers #17 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Panthers defense has allowed 19.7 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 5 times and picked him off 2 times.
  • James Conner vs. Carolina Panthers 6.3% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Panthers are giving up 134.7 YPG on 4.3 per carry thus far this season.

Cardinals/Panthers Bettting Stats:

Cardinals Against the spread: 1-2-0
Cardinals Over/Under: 1-1-1

Panthers Against the spread: 1-2-0
Panthers Over/Under: 1-2-0

The best bet is Carolina Panthers -1 and Under 43.