The 1-1-0 Los Angeles Chargers host the 1-1-0 Jacksonville Jaguars at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. The Chargers have a point spread of -7 with a money line of . The over/under total on the game is currently set at 47½ points.
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Jacksonville Jaguars (+7)Record: 1-1-0 |
Los Angeles Chargers (-7)Record: 1-1-0 |
Los Angeles Chargers Offense:
The Chargers are coached by Brandon Staley who has been with the team since 2021. They have a current season record of 1-1-0 after going 9-8 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Brandon Staley is no different.
Justin Herbert is the quarterback for the Chargers. The 24-year-old Oregon alum entered the league in 2020 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 2 games and thrown for 613 yards with a completion percentage of 72 percent. Justin Herbert has thrown 6 touchdowns despite 1 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 112.5.
His main target will be Keenan Allen. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 30-year-old target. He has made 4 receptions to date on 4 targets, a catch percentage of 100.0%, for a total of 66 yards. Keenan Allen is averaging 16.5 yards per catch with 0 touchdowns thus far. Justin Herbert will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Chargers running game is lead by the 27-year-old Austin Ekeler. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 28 carries and rushed for 75 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 37.5 YPG, a number that you know Brandon Staley would love to see him exceed in this game. Austin Ekeler has 0 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.
Overall, the Los Angeles Chargers offense ranks 10 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 10.3%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 7 with a Passing DVOA of 6.7%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 38.8%, ranking #7 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.625 with 5 Red Zone touchdowns in 8 attempts.
Los Angeles Chargers Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Chargers have a Defense DVOA of -14.3%, ranking 7 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #2 at -6.6% and they’ll need them to show up against Trevor Lawrence. The Brandon Staley-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -6.6%, #8 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Dustin Hopkins who has made 2 of 3 field goals this season, a 66.7% field goal percentage, with a long of 43 yards. The Los Angeles Chargers fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Jacksonville Jaguars Offense:
The Jaguars are on the road for this one. Doug Pederson’s squad is 1-1-0 this season after going 3-14 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Jacksonville Jaguars have a betting line of +7 or you could bet them straight up at .
23-year-old Trevor Lawrence will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2021 after playing his college days at Clemson. Trevor Lawrence has a quarterback rating of 96.4 on 3 touchdowns and 1 interceptions. He’s started 2 games and thrown for 510yards, a completion percentage of 68.1.
James Robinson is the lead back for the Jaguars running game. The 24-year-old has taken 34 carries and rushed for 130 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 65 YPG and he has scored 2 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.
On the passing front, Trevor Lawrence will look to target Christian Kirk against the Doug Pederson defense. Christian Kirk has 2 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 18 times and made 12 catches for 195 yards. Christian Kirk has a catch percentage of 66.7% and his yards per reception is 16.3.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Jacksonville Jaguars offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 18.6% which ranks at number 9 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -2.3%, the number 21 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 5 with a Rush DVOA total of 43.6%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 4 Red Zone touchdowns on 7 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.571.
Jacksonville Jaguars Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Riley Patterson to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 52 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Riley Patterson has made 4 field goals on 52 attempts, a field goal percentage of 80.0%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Jaguars with a Defensive DVOA of -30.6% which ranks at 3/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #2 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -6.6%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -3.2% DVOA which ranks at #8.
Key Match-ups:
- Justin Herbert QB Rating of 112.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Pass DVOA Defense of -2.3%
The Jaguars have 5 interceptions this year and 6 sacks. They are allowing 14 points per game. - Austin Ekeler vs. Jacksonville Jaguars number 5 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 3.4 yards per carry against the the Jacksonville Jaguars and 69.5 per game. - Trevor Lawrence QB Rating of 96.4 vs. Los Angeles Chargers #2 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Chargers defense has allowed 23 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 7 times and picked him off 3 times. - James Robinson vs. Los Angeles Chargers -16.7% DVOA Rush Defense
The Chargers are giving up 78.5 YPG on 5.1 per carry thus far this season.
Jaguars/Chargers Bettting Stats:
Jaguars Against the spread: 1-1-0
Jaguars Over/Under: 1-1-0
Chargers Against the spread: 2-0-0
Chargers Over/Under: 0-2-0
The best bet is Jacksonville Jaguars +7 and Under 47½.