Dolphins vs. Bengals: Week 4 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 28 September 2022

The 1-2-0 Cincinnati Bengals host the 3-0-0 Miami Dolphins at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio. The Bengals have a point spread of -4 with a money line of -195. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 47 points.

Miami Dolphins Cincinnati Bengals

Miami Dolphins (+4)

Record: 3-0-0
Points Per Game: 27.7
Points Allowed Per Game: 21.3

Cincinnati Bengals (-4)

Record: 1-2-0
Points Per Game: 21.3
Points Allowed Per Game: 18.3

Cincinnati Bengals Offense:

The Bengals are coached by Zac Taylor who has been with the team since 2019. They have a current season record of 1-2-0 after going 10-7 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Zac Taylor is no different.

Joe Burrow is the quarterback for the Bengals. The 26-year-old LSU alum entered the league in 2020 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 3 games and thrown for 812 yards with a completion percentage of 64 percent. Joe Burrow has thrown 6 touchdowns despite 4 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 85.1.

His main target will be Ja’Marr Chase. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 22-year-old target. He has made 21 receptions to date on 35 targets, a catch percentage of 60.0%, for a total of 212 yards. Ja’Marr Chase is averaging 10.1 yards per catch with 2 touchdowns thus far. Joe Burrow will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Bengals running game is lead by the 26-year-old Joe Mixon. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 58 carries and rushed for 163 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 54.3 YPG, a number that you know Zac Taylor would love to see him exceed in this game. Joe Mixon has 0 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.

Overall, the Cincinnati Bengals offense ranks 31 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -24.1%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 18 with a Passing DVOA of -1.1%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -9.2%, ranking #26 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.5 with 5 Red Zone touchdowns in 10 attempts.

Cincinnati Bengals Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Bengals have a Defense DVOA of -15.7%, ranking 7 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #9 at -3.5% and they’ll need them to show up against Tua Tagovailoa. The Zac Taylor-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -3.5%, #8 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Evan McPherson who has made 7 of 9 field goals this season, a 77.8% field goal percentage, with a long of 59 yards. The Cincinnati Bengals fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Miami Dolphins Offense:

The Dolphins are on the road for this one. Mike McDaniel’s squad is 3-0-0 this season after going 9-8 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Miami Dolphins have a betting line of +4 or you could bet them straight up at +170.

24-year-old Tua Tagovailoa will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2020 after playing his college days at Alabama. Tua Tagovailoa has a quarterback rating of 117.8 on 8 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He’s started 3 games and thrown for 925yards, a completion percentage of 71.3.

Chase Edmonds is the lead back for the Dolphins running game. The 26-year-old has taken 23 carries and rushed for 79 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 26.3 YPG and he has scored 2 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.

On the passing front, Tua Tagovailoa will look to target Tyreek Hill against the Mike McDaniel defense. Tyreek Hill has 2 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 29 times and made 21 catches for 317 yards. Tyreek Hill has a catch percentage of 72.4% and his yards per reception is 15.1.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Miami Dolphins offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 27.8% which ranks at number 2 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 8.0%, the number 6 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 3 with a Rush DVOA total of 53.5%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 7 Red Zone touchdowns on 9 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.778.

Miami Dolphins Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Jason Sanders to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 49 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Jason Sanders has made 2 field goals on 49 attempts, a field goal percentage of 100.0%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Dolphins with a Defensive DVOA of 12.8% which ranks at 24/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #9 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -3.5%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 4.8% DVOA which ranks at #8.

Key Match-ups:

  • Joe Burrow QB Rating of 85.1 vs. Miami Dolphins Pass DVOA Defense of 8.0%
    The Dolphins have 1 interceptions this year and 6 sacks. They are allowing 21.3 points per game.
  • Joe Mixon vs. Miami Dolphins number 3 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 5 yards per carry against the the Miami Dolphins and 116 per game.
  • Tua Tagovailoa QB Rating of 117.8 vs. Cincinnati Bengals #9 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Bengals defense has allowed 18.3 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 6 times and picked him off 2 times.
  • Chase Edmonds vs. Cincinnati Bengals -14.5% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Bengals are giving up 86 YPG on 3.7 per carry thus far this season.

Dolphins/Bengals Bettting Stats:

Dolphins Against the spread: 3-0-0
Dolphins Over/Under: 1-2-0

Bengals Against the spread: 1-2-0
Bengals Over/Under: 0-3-0

The best bet is Miami Dolphins +4 and Under 47.