The 0-1-1 Indianapolis Colts host the 2-0-0 Kansas City Chiefs at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana. The Colts have a point spread of +6½ with a money line of +227. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 49½ points.
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Kansas City Chiefs (-6½)Record: 2-0-0 |
Indianapolis Colts (+6½)Record: 0-1-1 |
Indianapolis Colts Offense:
The Colts are coached by Frank Reich who has been with the team since 2018. They have a current season record of 0-1-1 after going 9-8 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Frank Reich is no different.
Matt Ryan is the quarterback for the Colts. The 37-year-old Boston College alum entered the league in 2008 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 2 games and thrown for 547 yards with a completion percentage of 60 percent. Matt Ryan has thrown 1 touchdowns despite 4 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 63.9.
His main target will be Michael Pittman Jr.. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 25-year-old target. He has made 9 receptions to date on 13 targets, a catch percentage of 69.2%, for a total of 121 yards. Michael Pittman Jr. is averaging 13.4 yards per catch with 1 touchdowns thus far. Matt Ryan will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Colts running game is lead by the 23-year-old Jonathan Taylor. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 40 carries and rushed for 215 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 107.5 YPG, a number that you know Frank Reich would love to see him exceed in this game. Jonathan Taylor has 1 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.
Overall, the Indianapolis Colts offense ranks 31 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -30.8%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 25 with a Passing DVOA of -7.0%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -34.3%, ranking #31 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.286 with 2 Red Zone touchdowns in 7 attempts.
Indianapolis Colts Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Colts have a Defense DVOA of 5.8%, ranking 18 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #24 at 2.7% and they’ll need them to show up against Patrick Mahomes. The Frank Reich-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 2.7%, #29 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Rodrigo Blankenship who has made 2 of 3 field goals this season, a 66.7% field goal percentage, with a long of 45 yards. The Indianapolis Colts fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Kansas City Chiefs Offense:
The Chiefs are on the road for this one. Andy Reid’s squad is 2-0-0 this season after going 12-5 last year. He has been at the helm since 2013 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Kansas City Chiefs have a betting line of -6½ or you could bet them straight up at -267.
27-year-old Patrick Mahomes will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2017 after playing his college days at Texas Tech. Patrick Mahomes has a quarterback rating of 127.9 on 7 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. He’s started 2 games and thrown for 595yards, a completion percentage of 73.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is the lead back for the Chiefs running game. The 23-year-old has taken 15 carries and rushed for 116 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 58 YPG and he has scored 0 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.
On the passing front, Patrick Mahomes will look to target JuJu Smith-Schuster against the Andy Reid defense. JuJu Smith-Schuster has 0 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 11 times and made 9 catches for 89 yards. JuJu Smith-Schuster has a catch percentage of 81.8% and his yards per reception is 9.9.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Kansas City Chiefs offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 30.0% which ranks at number 3 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 14.5%, the number 1 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 3 with a Rush DVOA total of 56.6%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 7 Red Zone touchdowns on 9 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.778.
Kansas City Chiefs Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Harrison Butker to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 54 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Harrison Butker has made 1 field goals on 54 attempts, a field goal percentage of 100.0%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Chiefs with a Defensive DVOA of 0.2% which ranks at 14/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #24 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 2.7%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 3.3% DVOA which ranks at #29.
Key Match-ups:
- Matt Ryan QB Rating of 63.9 vs. Kansas City Chiefs Pass DVOA Defense of 14.5%
The Chiefs have 1 interceptions this year and 5 sacks. They are allowing 22.5 points per game. - Jonathan Taylor vs. Kansas City Chiefs number 3 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 3.9 yards per carry against the the Kansas City Chiefs and 89 per game. - Patrick Mahomes QB Rating of 127.9 vs. Indianapolis Colts #24 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Colts defense has allowed 22 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 3 times and picked him off 0 times. - Clyde Edwards-Helaire vs. Indianapolis Colts 41.6% DVOA Rush Defense
The Colts are giving up 86.5 YPG on 2.7 per carry thus far this season.
Chiefs/Colts Bettting Stats:
Chiefs Against the spread: 1-1-0
Chiefs Over/Under: 1-1-0
Colts Against the spread: 0-2-0
Colts Over/Under: 0-2-0
The best bet is Kansas City Chiefs -6½ and Under 49½.