The 2-0-0 Miami Dolphins host the 2-0-0 Buffalo Bills at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. The Dolphins have a point spread of +5½ with a money line of +195. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 53½ points.
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Buffalo Bills (-5½)Record: 2-0-0 |
Miami Dolphins (+5½)Record: 2-0-0 |
Miami Dolphins Offense:
The Dolphins are coached by Mike McDaniel who has been with the team since 2022. They have a current season record of 2-0-0 after going 9-8 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Mike McDaniel is no different.
Tua Tagovailoa is the quarterback for the Dolphins. The 24-year-old Alabama alum entered the league in 2020 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 2 games and thrown for 739 yards with a completion percentage of 71.1 percent. Tua Tagovailoa has thrown 7 touchdowns despite 2 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 116.5.
His main target will be Tyreek Hill. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 28-year-old target. He has made 19 receptions to date on 25 targets, a catch percentage of 76.0%, for a total of 284 yards. Tyreek Hill is averaging 14.9 yards per catch with 2 touchdowns thus far. Tua Tagovailoa will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Dolphins running game is lead by the 26-year-old Chase Edmonds. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 17 carries and rushed for 58 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 29 YPG, a number that you know Mike McDaniel would love to see him exceed in this game. Chase Edmonds has 0 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.
Overall, the Miami Dolphins offense ranks 2 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 30.4%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 8 with a Passing DVOA of 6.6%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 50.7%, ranking #4 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.667 with 4 Red Zone touchdowns in 6 attempts.
Miami Dolphins Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Dolphins have a Defense DVOA of 14.2%, ranking 26 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #29 at 4.3% and they’ll need them to show up against Josh Allen. The Mike McDaniel-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 4.3%, #31 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Jason Sanders who has made 2 of 2 field goals this season, a 100.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 49 yards. The Miami Dolphins fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Buffalo Bills Offense:
The Bills are on the road for this one. Sean McDermott’s squad is 2-0-0 this season after going 11-6 last year. He has been at the helm since 2017 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Buffalo Bills have a betting line of -5½ or you could bet them straight up at -225.
26-year-old Josh Allen will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2018 after playing his college days at Wyoming. Josh Allen has a quarterback rating of 123.7 on 7 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He’s started 2 games and thrown for 614yards, a completion percentage of 75.4.
Devin Singletary is the lead back for the Bills running game. The 25-year-old has taken 14 carries and rushed for 67 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 33.5 YPG and he has scored 0 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.
On the passing front, Josh Allen will look to target Stefon Diggs against the Sean McDermott defense. Stefon Diggs has 4 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 23 times and made 20 catches for 270 yards. Stefon Diggs has a catch percentage of 87.0% and his yards per reception is 13.5.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Buffalo Bills offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 21.6% which ranks at number 7 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 11.7%, the number 3 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 2 with a Rush DVOA total of 63.7%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 5 Red Zone touchdowns on 7 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.714.
Buffalo Bills Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Tyler Bass to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 49 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Tyler Bass has made 3 field goals on 49 attempts, a field goal percentage of 100.0%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Bills with a Defensive DVOA of -48.8% which ranks at 1/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #29 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 4.3%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -11.6% DVOA which ranks at #31.
Key Match-ups:
- Tua Tagovailoa QB Rating of 116.5 vs. Buffalo Bills Pass DVOA Defense of 11.7%
The Bills have 5 interceptions this year and 9 sacks. They are allowing 8.5 points per game. - Chase Edmonds vs. Buffalo Bills number 2 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 2.9 yards per carry against the the Buffalo Bills and 66 per game. - Josh Allen QB Rating of 123.7 vs. Miami Dolphins #29 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Dolphins defense has allowed 22.5 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 2 times and picked him off 1 times. - Devin Singletary vs. Miami Dolphins 48.2% DVOA Rush Defense
The Dolphins are giving up 116.5 YPG on 5 per carry thus far this season.
Bills/Dolphins Bettting Stats:
Bills Against the spread: 2-0-0
Bills Over/Under: 1-1-0
Dolphins Against the spread: 2-0-0
Dolphins Over/Under: 1-1-0
The best bet is Buffalo Bills -5½ and Under 53½.