The 1-9-1 Houston Texans host the 4-7-0 Cleveland Browns at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. The Texans have a point spread of 7 with a money line of 265. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 47 points.
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Cleveland Browns (-7)Record: 4-7-0 |
Houston Texans (7)Record: 1-9-1 |
Houston Texans Offense:
The Texans are coached by Lovie Smith who has been with the team since 2022. They have a current season record of 1-9-1 after going 4-13 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Lovie Smith is no different.
Kyle Allen is the quarterback for the Texans. The 26-year-old Texas A&M alum entered the league in 2018 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 1 games and thrown for 215 yards with a completion percentage of 66.7 percent. Kyle Allen has thrown 1 touchdowns despite 2 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 67.8.
His main target will be Brandin Cooks. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 29-year-old target. He has made 44 receptions to date on 71 targets, a catch percentage of 62.0%, for a total of 520 yards. Brandin Cooks is averaging 11.8 yards per catch with 1 touchdowns thus far. Kyle Allen will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Texans running game is lead by the 22-year-old Dameon Pierce. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 180 carries and rushed for 788 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 71.6 YPG, a number that you know Lovie Smith would love to see him exceed in this game. Dameon Pierce has 3 touchdowns this season and 3 fumbles.
Overall, the Houston Texans offense ranks 32 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -28.8%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 32 with a Passing DVOA of -27.3%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -29.8%, ranking #32 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.448 with 13 Red Zone touchdowns in 29 attempts.
Houston Texans Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Texans have a Defense DVOA of 9.6%, ranking 27 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #25 at 7.0% and they’ll need them to show up against Deshaun Watson. The Lovie Smith-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 7.0%, #24 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Ka’imi Fairbairn who has made 19 of 21 field goals this season, a 90.5% field goal percentage, with a long of 55 yards. The Houston Texans fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Cleveland Browns Offense:
The Browns are on the road for this one. Kevin Stefanski’s squad is 4-7-0 this season after going 8-9 last year. He has been at the helm since 2020 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Cleveland Browns have a betting line of -7 or you could bet them straight up at -315.
27-year-old Deshaun Watson will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2017 after playing his college days at Clemson. Deshaun Watson has a quarterback rating of 0 on 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. He’s started 0 games and thrown for 0yards, a completion percentage of 0.
Nick Chubb is the lead back for the Browns running game. The 27-year-old has taken 200 carries and rushed for 1039 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 94.5 YPG and he has scored 12 touchdowns with 1 fumbles.
On the passing front, Deshaun Watson will look to target Amari Cooper against the Kevin Stefanski defense. Amari Cooper has 7 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 93 times and made 57 catches for 792 yards. Amari Cooper has a catch percentage of 61.3% and his yards per reception is 13.9.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Cleveland Browns offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 15.8% which ranks at number 4 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 13.8%, the number 5 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 8 with a Rush DVOA total of 26.8%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 24 Red Zone touchdowns on 40 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.6.
Cleveland Browns Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Cade York to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 58 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Cade York has made 17 field goals on 58 attempts, a field goal percentage of 73.9%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Browns with a Defensive DVOA of 11.3% which ranks at 29/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #25 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 7.0%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 8.8% DVOA which ranks at #24.
Key Match-ups:
- Kyle Allen QB Rating of 67.8 vs. Cleveland Browns Pass DVOA Defense of 13.8%
The Browns have 3 interceptions this year and 25 sacks. They are allowing 26 points per game. - Dameon Pierce vs. Cleveland Browns number 8 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 4.8 yards per carry against the the Cleveland Browns and 131.5 per game. - Deshaun Watson QB Rating of 0 vs. Houston Texans #25 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Texans defense has allowed 23.6 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 27 times and picked him off 7 times. - Nick Chubb vs. Houston Texans 12.7% DVOA Rush Defense
The Texans are giving up 168.6 YPG on 4.9 per carry thus far this season.
Browns/Texans Bettting Stats:
Browns Against the spread: 5-5-1
Browns Over/Under: 7-3-1
Texans Against the spread: 4-6-1
Texans Over/Under: 4-7-0
The best bet is Cleveland Browns -7 and Under 47.