The 3-1-0 Green Bay Packers host the 3-1-0 New York Giants at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Packers have a point spread of -9½ with a money line of -375. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 41 points.
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New York Giants (9½)Record: 3-1-0 |
Green Bay Packers (-9½)Record: 3-1-0 |
Green Bay Packers Offense:
The Packers are coached by Matt LaFleur who has been with the team since 2019. They have a current season record of 3-1-0 after going 13-4 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Matt LaFleur is no different.
Aaron Rodgers is the quarterback for the Packers. The 39-year-old California alum entered the league in 2005 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 4 games and thrown for 935 yards with a completion percentage of 69 percent. Aaron Rodgers has thrown 6 touchdowns despite 3 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 95.6.
His main target will be Allen Lazard. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 27-year-old target. He has made 12 receptions to date on 17 targets, a catch percentage of 70.6%, for a total of 174 yards. Allen Lazard is averaging 14.5 yards per catch with 2 touchdowns thus far. Aaron Rodgers will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Packers running game is lead by the 28-year-old Aaron Jones. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 48 carries and rushed for 327 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 81.8 YPG, a number that you know Matt LaFleur would love to see him exceed in this game. Aaron Jones has 1 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.
Overall, the Green Bay Packers offense ranks 8 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 13.3%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 2 with a Passing DVOA of 10.8%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 17.4%, ranking #14 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.6 with 9 Red Zone touchdowns in 15 attempts.
Green Bay Packers Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Packers have a Defense DVOA of 2.9%, ranking 17 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #17 at 1.2% and they’ll need them to show up against Daniel Jones. The Matt LaFleur-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 1.2%, #9 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Mason Crosby who has made 4 of 4 field goals this season, a 100.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 40 yards. The Green Bay Packers fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
New York Giants Offense:
The Giants are on the road for this one. Brian Daboll’s squad is 3-1-0 this season after going 4-13 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The New York Giants have a betting line of 9½ or you could bet them straight up at 305.
25-year-old Daniel Jones will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2019 after playing his college days at Duke. Daniel Jones has a quarterback rating of 81.9 on 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He’s started 4 games and thrown for 631yards, a completion percentage of 63.8.
Saquon Barkley is the lead back for the Giants running game. The 25-year-old has taken 84 carries and rushed for 463 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 115.8 YPG and he has scored 2 touchdowns with 1 fumbles.
On the passing front, Daniel Jones will look to target Kadarius Toney against the Brian Daboll defense. Kadarius Toney has 0 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 3 times and made 2 catches for 0 yards. Kadarius Toney has a catch percentage of 66.7% and his yards per reception is 0.
According to FootballOutsiders, the New York Giants offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 0.8% which ranks at number 16 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -6.9%, the number 26 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 19 with a Rush DVOA total of 3.0%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 4 Red Zone touchdowns on 8 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.5.
New York Giants Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Graham Gano to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 56 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Graham Gano has made 9 field goals on 56 attempts, a field goal percentage of 81.8%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Giants with a Defensive DVOA of 8.2% which ranks at 23/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #17 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 1.2%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 7.4% DVOA which ranks at #9.
Key Match-ups:
- Aaron Rodgers QB Rating of 95.6 vs. New York Giants Pass DVOA Defense of -6.9%
The Giants have 0 interceptions this year and 9 sacks. They are allowing 17.8 points per game. - Aaron Jones vs. New York Giants number 19 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 5.1 yards per carry against the the New York Giants and 141 per game. - Daniel Jones QB Rating of 81.9 vs. Green Bay Packers #17 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Packers defense has allowed 17.3 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 11 times and picked him off 1 times. - Saquon Barkley vs. Green Bay Packers -5.5% DVOA Rush Defense
The Packers are giving up 126.8 YPG on 5 per carry thus far this season.
Giants/Packers Bettting Stats:
Giants Against the spread: 3-1-0
Giants Over/Under: 1-3-0
Packers Against the spread: 2-2-0
Packers Over/Under: 1-3-0
The best bet is New York Giants 9½ and Under 41.