Bills vs. Bears: Week 16 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 22 December 2022

The 3-11-0 Chicago Bears host the 11-3-0 Buffalo Bills at Soldier Field in Chicago, Illinois. The Bears have a point spread of 8 with a money line of 310. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 40 points.

Buffalo Bills Chicago Bears

Buffalo Bills (-8)

Record: 11-3-0
Points Per Game: 27.5
Points Allowed Per Game: 17.9

Chicago Bears (8)

Record: 3-11-0
Points Per Game: 20.7
Points Allowed Per Game: 25.6

Chicago Bears Offense:

The Bears are coached by Matt Eberflus who has been with the team since 2022. They have a current season record of 3-11-0 after going 6-11 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Matt Eberflus is no different.

Justin Fields is the quarterback for the Bears. The 23-year-old Ohio State alum entered the league in 2021 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 13 games and thrown for 2048 yards with a completion percentage of 62.0 percent. Justin Fields has thrown 15 touchdowns despite 10 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 88.

His main target will be Darnell Mooney. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 25-year-old target. He has made 40 receptions to date on 61 targets, a catch percentage of 65.6%, for a total of 493 yards. Darnell Mooney is averaging 12.3 yards per catch with 2 touchdowns thus far. Justin Fields will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Bears running game is lead by the 25-year-old David Montgomery. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 172 carries and rushed for 694 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 53.4 YPG, a number that you know Matt Eberflus would love to see him exceed in this game. David Montgomery has 5 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.

Overall, the Chicago Bears offense ranks 22 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -5.7%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 27 with a Passing DVOA of -4.4%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 0.8%, ranking #9 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.581 with 25 Red Zone touchdowns in 43 attempts.

Chicago Bears Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Bears have a Defense DVOA of 13.10%, ranking 31 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #30 at 22.80% and they’ll need them to show up against Josh Allen. The Matt Eberflus-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 22.80%, #27 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Cairo Santos who has made 18 of 20 field goals this season, a 90.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 51 yards. The Chicago Bears fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Buffalo Bills Offense:

The Bills are on the road for this one. Sean McDermott’s squad is 11-3-0 this season after going 11-6 last year. He has been at the helm since 2017 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Buffalo Bills have a betting line of -8 or you could bet them straight up at -380.

26-year-old Josh Allen will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2018 after playing his college days at Wyoming. Josh Allen has a quarterback rating of 97.3 on 30 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He’s started 14 games and thrown for 3857yards, a completion percentage of 63.7.

Devin Singletary is the lead back for the Bills running game. The 25-year-old has taken 158 carries and rushed for 684 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 48.9 YPG and he has scored 4 touchdowns with 2 fumbles.

On the passing front, Josh Allen will look to target Stefon Diggs against the Sean McDermott defense. Stefon Diggs has 10 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 142 times and made 99 catches for 1299 yards. Stefon Diggs has a catch percentage of 69.7% and his yards per reception is 13.1.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Buffalo Bills offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 16.4% which ranks at number 4 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 34.9%, the number 3 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 15 with a Rush DVOA total of -3.4%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 31 Red Zone touchdowns on 52 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.596.

Buffalo Bills Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Tyler Bass to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 56 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Tyler Bass has made 27 field goals on 56 attempts, a field goal percentage of 90.0%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Bills with a Defensive DVOA of -12.20% which ranks at 5/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #30 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 22.80%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -8.00% DVOA which ranks at #27.

Key Match-ups:

  • Justin Fields QB Rating of 88 vs. Buffalo Bills Pass DVOA Defense of 34.9%
    The Bills have 13 interceptions this year and 37 sacks. They are allowing 17.9 points per game.
  • David Montgomery vs. Buffalo Bills number 15 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 4.4 yards per carry against the the Buffalo Bills and 106.1 per game.
  • Josh Allen QB Rating of 97.3 vs. Chicago Bears #30 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Bears defense has allowed 25.6 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 17 times and picked him off 11 times.
  • Devin Singletary vs. Chicago Bears 3.20% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Bears are giving up 143.9 YPG on 4.6 per carry thus far this season.

Bills/Bears Bettting Stats:

Bills Against the spread: 5-8-1
Bills Over/Under: 4-10-0

Bears Against the spread: 5-8-1
Bears Over/Under: 9-5-0

The best bet is Buffalo Bills -8 and Under 40.