Steelers vs. Falcons: Week 13 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 1 December 2022

The 5-7-0 Atlanta Falcons host the 4-7-0 Pittsburgh Steelers at Mercedes-Benz Stadiumdouble-dagger in Atlanta, Georgia. The Falcons have a point spread of -1 with a money line of -117. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 42 points.

Pittsburgh Steelers Atlanta Falcons

Pittsburgh Steelers (1)

Record: 4-7-0
Points Per Game: 17.6
Points Allowed Per Game: 23.7

Atlanta Falcons (-1)

Record: 5-7-0
Points Per Game: 22.7
Points Allowed Per Game: 24.4

Atlanta Falcons Offense:

The Falcons are coached by Arthur Smith who has been with the team since 2021. They have a current season record of 5-7-0 after going 7-10 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Arthur Smith is no different.

Marcus Mariota is the quarterback for the Falcons. The 29-year-old Oregon alum entered the league in 2015 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 12 games and thrown for 2046 yards with a completion percentage of 62.0 percent. Marcus Mariota has thrown 14 touchdowns despite 8 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 89.4.

His main target will be Drake London. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 21-year-old target. He has made 41 receptions to date on 69 targets, a catch percentage of 59.4%, for a total of 438 yards. Drake London is averaging 10.7 yards per catch with 4 touchdowns thus far. Marcus Mariota will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Falcons running game is lead by the 31-year-old Cordarrelle Patterson. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 97 carries and rushed for 506 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 63.3 YPG, a number that you know Arthur Smith would love to see him exceed in this game. Cordarrelle Patterson has 5 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.

Overall, the Atlanta Falcons offense ranks 13 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 5.5%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 12 with a Passing DVOA of 4.7%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 10.1%, ranking #18 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.535 with 23 Red Zone touchdowns in 43 attempts.

Atlanta Falcons Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Falcons have a Defense DVOA of 11.5%, ranking 30 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #30 at 11.2% and they’ll need them to show up against Kenny Pickett. The Arthur Smith-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 11.2%, #29 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Younghoe Koo who has made 20 of 25 field goals this season, a 80.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 54 yards. The Atlanta Falcons fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Pittsburgh Steelers Offense:

The Steelers are on the road for this one. Mike Tomlin’s squad is 4-7-0 this season after going 9-7 last year. He has been at the helm since 2007 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Pittsburgh Steelers have a betting line of 1 or you could bet them straight up at -103.

24-year-old Kenny Pickett will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2022 after playing his college days at Pitt. Kenny Pickett has a quarterback rating of 73.5 on 3 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. He’s started 7 games and thrown for 1600yards, a completion percentage of 66.0.

Najee Harris is the lead back for the Steelers running game. The 24-year-old has taken 158 carries and rushed for 585 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 53.2 YPG and he has scored 4 touchdowns with 2 fumbles.

On the passing front, Kenny Pickett will look to target Diontae Johnson against the Mike Tomlin defense. Diontae Johnson has 0 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 94 times and made 56 catches for 505 yards. Diontae Johnson has a catch percentage of 59.6% and his yards per reception is 9.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Pittsburgh Steelers offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -3.5% which ranks at number 21 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -2.9%, the number 21 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 23 with a Rush DVOA total of 2.1%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 17 Red Zone touchdowns on 34 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.5.

Pittsburgh Steelers Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Chris Boswell to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 59 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Chris Boswell has made 12 field goals on 59 attempts, a field goal percentage of 75.0%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Steelers with a Defensive DVOA of -2.5% which ranks at 14/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #30 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 11.2%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -1.4% DVOA which ranks at #29.

Key Match-ups:

  • Marcus Mariota QB Rating of 89.4 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Pass DVOA Defense of -2.9%
    The Steelers have 13 interceptions this year and 22 sacks. They are allowing 23.7 points per game.
  • Cordarrelle Patterson vs. Pittsburgh Steelers number 23 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 4 yards per carry against the the Pittsburgh Steelers and 104 per game.
  • Kenny Pickett QB Rating of 73.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons #30 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Falcons defense has allowed 18.1 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 30 times and picked him off 13 times.
  • Najee Harris vs. Atlanta Falcons 18.2% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Falcons are giving up 105.6 YPG on 4.2 per carry thus far this season.

Steelers/Falcons Bettting Stats:

Steelers Against the spread: 5-5-1
Steelers Over/Under: 5-6-0

Falcons Against the spread: 7-5-0
Falcons Over/Under: 6-6-0

The best bet is Atlanta Falcons -1 and Under 42.

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