The 3-9-0 Chicago Bears host the 4-8-0 Green Bay Packers at Soldier Field in Chicago, Illinois. The Bears have a point spread of 4.5 with a money line of 165. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 43.5 points.
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Green Bay Packers (-4.5)Record: 4-8-0 |
Chicago Bears (4.5)Record: 3-9-0 |
Chicago Bears Offense:
The Bears are coached by Matt Eberflus who has been with the team since 2022. They have a current season record of 3-9-0 after going 6-11 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Matt Eberflus is no different.
Justin Fields is the quarterback for the Bears. The 23-year-old Ohio State alum entered the league in 2021 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 11 games and thrown for 1642 yards with a completion percentage of 59.6 percent. Justin Fields has thrown 13 touchdowns despite 8 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 86.2.
His main target will be Darnell Mooney. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 25-year-old target. He has made 40 receptions to date on 61 targets, a catch percentage of 65.6%, for a total of 493 yards. Darnell Mooney is averaging 12.3 yards per catch with 2 touchdowns thus far. Justin Fields will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Bears running game is lead by the 25-year-old David Montgomery. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 146 carries and rushed for 580 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 52.7 YPG, a number that you know Matt Eberflus would love to see him exceed in this game. David Montgomery has 3 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.
Overall, the Chicago Bears offense ranks 22 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -6.2%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 22 with a Passing DVOA of -3.7%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -7.1%, ranking #28 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.579 with 22 Red Zone touchdowns in 38 attempts.
Chicago Bears Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Bears have a Defense DVOA of 16.0%, ranking 31 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #32 at 18.0% and they’ll need them to show up against Aaron Rodgers. The Matt Eberflus-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 18.0%, #31 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Cairo Santos who has made 16 of 17 field goals this season, a 94.1% field goal percentage, with a long of 51 yards. The Chicago Bears fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Green Bay Packers Offense:
The Packers are on the road for this one. Matt LaFleur’s squad is 4-8-0 this season after going 13-4 last year. He has been at the helm since 2019 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Green Bay Packers have a betting line of -4.5 or you could bet them straight up at -190.
39-year-old Aaron Rodgers will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2005 after playing his college days at California. Aaron Rodgers has a quarterback rating of 92.9 on 21 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. He’s started 12 games and thrown for 2682yards, a completion percentage of 64.8.
Aaron Jones is the lead back for the Packers running game. The 28-year-old has taken 155 carries and rushed for 821 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 68.4 YPG and he has scored 2 touchdowns with 3 fumbles.
On the passing front, Aaron Rodgers will look to target Allen Lazard against the Matt LaFleur defense. Allen Lazard has 5 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 69 times and made 40 catches for 553 yards. Allen Lazard has a catch percentage of 58.0% and his yards per reception is 13.8.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Green Bay Packers offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 8.3% which ranks at number 9 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 8.1%, the number 10 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 15 with a Rush DVOA total of 13.5%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 19 Red Zone touchdowns on 36 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.528.
Green Bay Packers Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Mason Crosby to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 48 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Mason Crosby has made 13 field goals on 48 attempts, a field goal percentage of 81.3%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Packers with a Defensive DVOA of 4.5% which ranks at 21/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #32 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 18.0%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 3.5% DVOA which ranks at #31.
Key Match-ups:
- Justin Fields QB Rating of 86.2 vs. Green Bay Packers Pass DVOA Defense of 8.1%
The Packers have 8 interceptions this year and 24 sacks. They are allowing 23.6 points per game. - David Montgomery vs. Green Bay Packers number 15 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 5 yards per carry against the the Green Bay Packers and 154.8 per game. - Aaron Rodgers QB Rating of 92.9 vs. Chicago Bears #32 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Bears defense has allowed 25.4 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 16 times and picked him off 9 times. - Aaron Jones vs. Chicago Bears 27.4% DVOA Rush Defense
The Bears are giving up 143.9 YPG on 4.7 per carry thus far this season.
Packers/Bears Bettting Stats:
Packers Against the spread: 4-8-0
Packers Over/Under: 6-6-0
Bears Against the spread: 4-7-1
Bears Over/Under: 8-4-0
The best bet is Chicago Bears 4.5 and Under 43.5.