Jaguars vs. Lions: Week 13 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 1 December 2022

The 4-7-0 Detroit Lions host the 4-7-0 Jacksonville Jaguars at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan. The Lions have a point spread of pk with a money line of . The over/under total on the game is currently set at 51.5 points.

Jacksonville Jaguars Detroit Lions

Jacksonville Jaguars (pk)

Record: 4-7-0
Points Per Game: 22.2
Points Allowed Per Game: 21.1

Detroit Lions (pk)

Record: 4-7-0
Points Per Game: 25
Points Allowed Per Game: 28.2

Detroit Lions Offense:

The Lions are coached by Dan Campbell who has been with the team since 2021. They have a current season record of 4-7-0 after going 3-13-1 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Dan Campbell is no different.

Jared Goff is the quarterback for the Lions. The 28-year-old California alum entered the league in 2016 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 11 games and thrown for 2682 yards with a completion percentage of 63.7 percent. Jared Goff has thrown 17 touchdowns despite 7 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 93.5.

His main target will be Amon-Ra St. Brown. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 23-year-old target. He has made 65 receptions to date on 88 targets, a catch percentage of 73.9%, for a total of 716 yards. Amon-Ra St. Brown is averaging 11 yards per catch with 4 touchdowns thus far. Jared Goff will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Lions running game is lead by the 23-year-old D’Andre Swift. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 50 carries and rushed for 292 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 36.5 YPG, a number that you know Dan Campbell would love to see him exceed in this game. D’Andre Swift has 3 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.

Overall, the Detroit Lions offense ranks 12 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 5.6%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 16 with a Passing DVOA of 2.9%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 15.9%, ranking #14 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.714 with 30 Red Zone touchdowns in 42 attempts.

Detroit Lions Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Lions have a Defense DVOA of 6.9%, ranking 24 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #21 at 4.0% and they’ll need them to show up against Trevor Lawrence. The Dan Campbell-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 4.0%, #19 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Michael Badgley who has made 11 of 12 field goals this season, a 91.7% field goal percentage, with a long of 53 yards. The Detroit Lions fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Jacksonville Jaguars Offense:

The Jaguars are on the road for this one. Doug Pederson’s squad is 4-7-0 this season after going 3-14 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Jacksonville Jaguars have a betting line of pk or you could bet them straight up at .

23-year-old Trevor Lawrence will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2021 after playing his college days at Clemson. Trevor Lawrence has a quarterback rating of 93.6 on 16 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. He’s started 11 games and thrown for 2655yards, a completion percentage of 66.5.

Travis Etienne is the lead back for the Jaguars running game. The 23-year-old has taken 133 carries and rushed for 728 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 66.2 YPG and he has scored 4 touchdowns with 3 fumbles.

On the passing front, Trevor Lawrence will look to target Christian Kirk against the Doug Pederson defense. Christian Kirk has 7 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 91 times and made 56 catches for 725 yards. Christian Kirk has a catch percentage of 61.5% and his yards per reception is 12.9.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Jacksonville Jaguars offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 4.5% which ranks at number 14 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 3.1%, the number 14 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 11 with a Rush DVOA total of 21.9%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 22 Red Zone touchdowns on 41 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.537.

Jacksonville Jaguars Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Riley Patterson to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 52 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Riley Patterson has made 16 field goals on 52 attempts, a field goal percentage of 80.0%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Jaguars with a Defensive DVOA of 8.7% which ranks at 26/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #21 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 4.0%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 10.0% DVOA which ranks at #19.

Key Match-ups:

  • Jared Goff QB Rating of 93.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Pass DVOA Defense of 3.1%
    The Jaguars have 9 interceptions this year and 17 sacks. They are allowing 21.1 points per game.
  • D’Andre Swift vs. Jacksonville Jaguars number 11 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 4.2 yards per carry against the the Jacksonville Jaguars and 114.8 per game.
  • Trevor Lawrence QB Rating of 93.6 vs. Detroit Lions #21 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Lions defense has allowed 28.2 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 20 times and picked him off 9 times.
  • Travis Etienne vs. Detroit Lions 9.3% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Lions are giving up 154.6 YPG on 5.2 per carry thus far this season.

Jaguars/Lions Bettting Stats:

Jaguars Against the spread: 4-7-0
Jaguars Over/Under: 5-6-0

Lions Against the spread: 7-4-0
Lions Over/Under: 7-4-0

The best bet is Detroit Lions pk and Under 51.5.

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