Commanders vs. Giants: Week 13 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 1 December 2022

The 7-4-0 New York Giants host the 7-5-0 Washington Commanders at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The Giants have a point spread of 2.5 with a money line of 115. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 40 points.

Washington Commanders New York Giants

Washington Commanders (-2.5)

Record: 7-5-0
Points Per Game: 19.4
Points Allowed Per Game: 19.7

New York Giants (2.5)

Record: 7-4-0
Points Per Game: 20.5
Points Allowed Per Game: 21.1

New York Giants Offense:

The Giants are coached by Brian Daboll who has been with the team since 2022. They have a current season record of 7-4-0 after going 4-13 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Brian Daboll is no different.

Daniel Jones is the quarterback for the Giants. The 25-year-old Duke alum entered the league in 2019 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 11 games and thrown for 2165 yards with a completion percentage of 64.6 percent. Daniel Jones has thrown 10 touchdowns despite 4 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 89.7.

His main target will be Darius Slayton. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 25-year-old target. He has made 27 receptions to date on 44 targets, a catch percentage of 61.4%, for a total of 476 yards. Darius Slayton is averaging 17.6 yards per catch with 2 touchdowns thus far. Daniel Jones will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Giants running game is lead by the 25-year-old Saquon Barkley. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 224 carries and rushed for 992 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 90.2 YPG, a number that you know Brian Daboll would love to see him exceed in this game. Saquon Barkley has 7 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.

Overall, the New York Giants offense ranks 16 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 3.1%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 17 with a Passing DVOA of 1.1%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 17.8%, ranking #12 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.594 with 19 Red Zone touchdowns in 32 attempts.

New York Giants Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Giants have a Defense DVOA of 10.3%, ranking 28 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #29 at 10.1% and they’ll need them to show up against Taylor Heinicke. The Brian Daboll-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 10.1%, #28 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Graham Gano who has made 20 of 22 field goals this season, a 90.9% field goal percentage, with a long of 57 yards. The New York Giants fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Washington Commanders Offense:

The Commanders are on the road for this one. Ron Rivera’s squad is 7-5-0 this season after going 7-10 last year. He has been at the helm since 2020 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Washington Commanders have a betting line of -2.5 or you could bet them straight up at -135.

29-year-old Taylor Heinicke will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2015 after playing his college days at Old Dominion. Taylor Heinicke has a quarterback rating of 82.7 on 7 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. He’s started 6 games and thrown for 1169yards, a completion percentage of 60.8.

Antonio Gibson is the lead back for the Commanders running game. The 24-year-old has taken 130 carries and rushed for 476 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 39.7 YPG and he has scored 3 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.

On the passing front, Taylor Heinicke will look to target Terry McLaurin against the Ron Rivera defense. Terry McLaurin has 2 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 86 times and made 54 catches for 840 yards. Terry McLaurin has a catch percentage of 62.8% and his yards per reception is 15.6.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Washington Commanders offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -12.1% which ranks at number 26 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -10.7%, the number 27 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 26 with a Rush DVOA total of -5.8%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 17 Red Zone touchdowns on 32 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.531.

Washington Commanders Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Joey Slye to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 58 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Joey Slye has made 18 field goals on 58 attempts, a field goal percentage of 90.0%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Commanders with a Defensive DVOA of -5.9% which ranks at 11/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #29 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 10.1%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -6.6% DVOA which ranks at #28.

Key Match-ups:

  • Daniel Jones QB Rating of 89.7 vs. Washington Commanders Pass DVOA Defense of -10.7%
    The Commanders have 7 interceptions this year and 30 sacks. They are allowing 19.7 points per game.
  • Saquon Barkley vs. Washington Commanders number 26 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 4.4 yards per carry against the the Washington Commanders and 108.4 per game.
  • Taylor Heinicke QB Rating of 82.7 vs. New York Giants #29 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Giants defense has allowed 21.1 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 20 times and picked him off 4 times.
  • Antonio Gibson vs. New York Giants 15.0% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Giants are giving up 138.9 YPG on 5.2 per carry thus far this season.

Commanders/Giants Bettting Stats:

Commanders Against the spread: 7-4-1
Commanders Over/Under: 4-8-0

Giants Against the spread: 8-3-0
Giants Over/Under: 4-7-0

The best bet is New York Giants 2.5 and Under 40.

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