Chiefs vs. Bengals: Week 13 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 1 December 2022

The 7-4-0 Cincinnati Bengals host the 9-2-0 Kansas City Chiefs at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio. The Bengals have a point spread of 1.5 with a money line of 110. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 53 points.

Kansas City Chiefs Cincinnati Bengals

Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5)

Record: 9-2-0
Points Per Game: 29.6
Points Allowed Per Game: 22.1

Cincinnati Bengals (1.5)

Record: 7-4-0
Points Per Game: 25.9
Points Allowed Per Game: 21

Cincinnati Bengals Offense:

The Bengals are coached by Zac Taylor who has been with the team since 2019. They have a current season record of 7-4-0 after going 10-7 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Zac Taylor is no different.

Joe Burrow is the quarterback for the Bengals. The 26-year-old LSU alum entered the league in 2020 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 11 games and thrown for 3160 yards with a completion percentage of 68.2 percent. Joe Burrow has thrown 23 touchdowns despite 8 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 101.7.

His main target will be Ja’Marr Chase. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 22-year-old target. He has made 47 receptions to date on 74 targets, a catch percentage of 63.5%, for a total of 605 yards. Ja’Marr Chase is averaging 12.9 yards per catch with 6 touchdowns thus far. Joe Burrow will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Bengals running game is lead by the 26-year-old Joe Mixon. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 158 carries and rushed for 605 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 60.5 YPG, a number that you know Zac Taylor would love to see him exceed in this game. Joe Mixon has 6 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.

Overall, the Cincinnati Bengals offense ranks 7 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 12.3%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 4 with a Passing DVOA of 15.0%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 23.2%, ranking #9 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.714 with 25 Red Zone touchdowns in 35 attempts.

Cincinnati Bengals Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Bengals have a Defense DVOA of -5.6%, ranking 12 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #13 at -2.5% and they’ll need them to show up against Patrick Mahomes. The Zac Taylor-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -2.5%, #9 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Evan McPherson who has made 16 of 20 field goals this season, a 80.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 59 yards. The Cincinnati Bengals fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Kansas City Chiefs Offense:

The Chiefs are on the road for this one. Andy Reid’s squad is 9-2-0 this season after going 12-5 last year. He has been at the helm since 2013 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Kansas City Chiefs have a betting line of -1.5 or you could bet them straight up at -130.

27-year-old Patrick Mahomes will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2017 after playing his college days at Texas Tech. Patrick Mahomes has a quarterback rating of 105.3 on 29 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. He’s started 11 games and thrown for 3585yards, a completion percentage of 66.1.

Isiah Pacheco is the lead back for the Chiefs running game. The 22-year-old has taken 97 carries and rushed for 455 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 41.4 YPG and he has scored 2 touchdowns with 3 fumbles.

On the passing front, Patrick Mahomes will look to target Travis Kelce against the Andy Reid defense. Travis Kelce has 12 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 102 times and made 73 catches for 912 yards. Travis Kelce has a catch percentage of 71.6% and his yards per reception is 12.5.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Kansas City Chiefs offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 25.2% which ranks at number 1 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 24.6%, the number 1 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 2 with a Rush DVOA total of 43.3%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 32 Red Zone touchdowns on 49 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.653.

Kansas City Chiefs Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Harrison Butker to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 62 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Harrison Butker has made 12 field goals on 62 attempts, a field goal percentage of 80.0%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Chiefs with a Defensive DVOA of 3.8% which ranks at 18/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #13 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -2.5%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 3.0% DVOA which ranks at #9.

Key Match-ups:

  • Joe Burrow QB Rating of 101.7 vs. Kansas City Chiefs Pass DVOA Defense of 24.6%
    The Chiefs have 6 interceptions this year and 35 sacks. They are allowing 22.1 points per game.
  • Joe Mixon vs. Kansas City Chiefs number 2 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 4.3 yards per carry against the the Kansas City Chiefs and 102 per game.
  • Patrick Mahomes QB Rating of 105.3 vs. Cincinnati Bengals #13 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Bengals defense has allowed 21 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 17 times and picked him off 8 times.
  • Isiah Pacheco vs. Cincinnati Bengals -2.6% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Bengals are giving up 112.2 YPG on 4.3 per carry thus far this season.

Chiefs/Bengals Bettting Stats:

Chiefs Against the spread: 4-7-0
Chiefs Over/Under: 5-6-0

Bengals Against the spread: 8-3-0
Bengals Over/Under: 4-6-1

The best bet is Cincinnati Bengals 1.5 and Under 53.

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