Packers vs. Eagles: Week 12 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 24 November 2022

The 9-1-0 Philadelphia Eagles host the 4-7-0 Green Bay Packers at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Eagles have a point spread of -6.5 with a money line of -290. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 46.5 points.

Green Bay Packers Philadelphia Eagles

Green Bay Packers (+6.5)

Record: 4-7-0
Points Per Game: 18.4
Points Allowed Per Game: 22.1

Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)

Record: 9-1-0
Points Per Game: 26.3
Points Allowed Per Game: 18.3

Philadelphia Eagles Offense:

The Eagles are coached by Nick Sirianni who has been with the team since 2021. They have a current season record of 9-1-0 after going 9-8 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Nick Sirianni is no different.

Jalen Hurts is the quarterback for the Eagles. The 24-year-old Oklahoma alum entered the league in 2020 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 10 games and thrown for 2407 yards with a completion percentage of 68.3 percent. Jalen Hurts has thrown 15 touchdowns despite 3 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 106.5.

His main target will be A.J. Brown. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 25-year-old target. He has made 49 receptions to date on 80 targets, a catch percentage of 61.3%, for a total of 785 yards. A.J. Brown is averaging 16 yards per catch with 6 touchdowns thus far. Jalen Hurts will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Eagles running game is lead by the 25-year-old Miles Sanders. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 156 carries and rushed for 757 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 75.7 YPG, a number that you know Nick Sirianni would love to see him exceed in this game. Miles Sanders has 6 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.

Overall, the Philadelphia Eagles offense ranks 3 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 16.6%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 3 with a Passing DVOA of 14.6%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 28.3%, ranking #6 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.714 with 25 Red Zone touchdowns in 35 attempts.

Philadelphia Eagles Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Eagles have a Defense DVOA of -12.1%, ranking 4 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #5 at -8.6% and they’ll need them to show up against Aaron Rodgers. The Nick Sirianni-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -8.6%, #3 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Jake Elliott who has made 7 of 9 field goals this season, a 77.8% field goal percentage, with a long of 51 yards. The Philadelphia Eagles fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Green Bay Packers Offense:

The Packers are on the road for this one. Matt LaFleur’s squad is 4-7-0 this season after going 13-4 last year. He has been at the helm since 2019 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Green Bay Packers have a betting line of +6.5 or you could bet them straight up at +245.

39-year-old Aaron Rodgers will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2005 after playing his college days at California. Aaron Rodgers has a quarterback rating of 93.2 on 19 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. He’s started 11 games and thrown for 2542yards, a completion percentage of 64.6.

Aaron Jones is the lead back for the Packers running game. The 28-year-old has taken 143 carries and rushed for 778 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 70.7 YPG and he has scored 2 touchdowns with 3 fumbles.

On the passing front, Aaron Rodgers will look to target Allen Lazard against the Matt LaFleur defense. Allen Lazard has 5 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 66 times and made 38 catches for 529 yards. Allen Lazard has a catch percentage of 57.6% and his yards per reception is 13.9.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Green Bay Packers offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 8.1% which ranks at number 9 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 8.0%, the number 9 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 16 with a Rush DVOA total of 13.0%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 17 Red Zone touchdowns on 32 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.531.

Green Bay Packers Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Mason Crosby to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 48 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Mason Crosby has made 11 field goals on 48 attempts, a field goal percentage of 78.6%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Packers with a Defensive DVOA of 2.9% which ranks at 20/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #5 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -8.6%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 2.1% DVOA which ranks at #3.

Key Match-ups:

  • Jalen Hurts QB Rating of 106.5 vs. Green Bay Packers Pass DVOA Defense of 8.0%
    The Packers have 8 interceptions this year and 22 sacks. They are allowing 22.1 points per game.
  • Miles Sanders vs. Green Bay Packers number 16 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 4.6 yards per carry against the the Green Bay Packers and 135.8 per game.
  • Aaron Rodgers QB Rating of 93.2 vs. Philadelphia Eagles #5 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Eagles defense has allowed 18.3 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 33 times and picked him off 13 times.
  • Aaron Jones vs. Philadelphia Eagles -22.7% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Eagles are giving up 122.2 YPG on 4.6 per carry thus far this season.

Packers/Eagles Bettting Stats:

Packers Against the spread: 3-6-0
Packers Over/Under: 3-6-0

Eagles Against the spread: 5-3-0
Eagles Over/Under: 5-3-0

The best bet is Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 and Under 46.5.

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