Chargers vs. Cardinals: Week 12 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 24 November 2022

The 4-7-0 Arizona Cardinals host the 5-5-0 Los Angeles Chargers at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. The Cardinals have a point spread of +3.0 with a money line of +150. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 48 points.

Los Angeles Chargers Arizona Cardinals

Los Angeles Chargers (-3.0)

Record: 5-5-0
Points Per Game: 22.7
Points Allowed Per Game: 25.8

Arizona Cardinals (+3.0)

Record: 4-7-0
Points Per Game: 21.8
Points Allowed Per Game: 26.9

Arizona Cardinals Offense:

The Cardinals are coached by Kliff Kingsbury who has been with the team since 2019. They have a current season record of 4-7-0 after going 11-6 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Kliff Kingsbury is no different.

Kyler Murray is the quarterback for the Cardinals. The 25-year-old Oklahoma alum entered the league in 2019 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 9 games and thrown for 2168 yards with a completion percentage of 66.7 percent. Kyler Murray has thrown 12 touchdowns despite 6 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 86.9.

His main target will be Marquise Brown. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 25-year-old target. He has made 43 receptions to date on 64 targets, a catch percentage of 67.2%, for a total of 485 yards. Marquise Brown is averaging 11.3 yards per catch with 3 touchdowns thus far. Kyler Murray will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Cardinals running game is lead by the 27-year-old James Conner. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 96 carries and rushed for 356 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 44.5 YPG, a number that you know Kliff Kingsbury would love to see him exceed in this game. James Conner has 4 touchdowns this season and 2 fumbles.

Overall, the Arizona Cardinals offense ranks 29 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -18.5%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 29 with a Passing DVOA of -15.7%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -11.9%, ranking #29 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.594 with 19 Red Zone touchdowns in 32 attempts.

Arizona Cardinals Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Cardinals have a Defense DVOA of 7.4%, ranking 24 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #25 at 6.6% and they’ll need them to show up against Justin Herbert. The Kliff Kingsbury-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 6.6%, #22 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Matt Prater who has made 9 of 9 field goals this season, a 100.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 49 yards. The Arizona Cardinals fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Los Angeles Chargers Offense:

The Chargers are on the road for this one. Brandon Staley’s squad is 5-5-0 this season after going 9-8 last year. He has been at the helm since 2021 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Los Angeles Chargers have a betting line of -3.0 or you could bet them straight up at -170.

24-year-old Justin Herbert will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2020 after playing his college days at Oregon. Justin Herbert has a quarterback rating of 90.7 on 16 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. He’s started 10 games and thrown for 2730yards, a completion percentage of 66.6.

Austin Ekeler is the lead back for the Chargers running game. The 27-year-old has taken 123 carries and rushed for 534 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 53.4 YPG and he has scored 7 touchdowns with 3 fumbles.

On the passing front, Justin Herbert will look to target Mike Williams against the Brandon Staley defense. Mike Williams has 3 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 60 times and made 38 catches for 510 yards. Mike Williams has a catch percentage of 63.3% and his yards per reception is 13.4.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Los Angeles Chargers offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -7.9% which ranks at number 24 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -4.8%, the number 21 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 19 with a Rush DVOA total of 4.7%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 19 Red Zone touchdowns on 36 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.528.

Los Angeles Chargers Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Cameron Dicker to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 47 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Cameron Dicker has made 9 field goals on 47 attempts, a field goal percentage of 100.0%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Chargers with a Defensive DVOA of 2.9% which ranks at 19/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #25 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 6.6%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 3.0% DVOA which ranks at #22.

Key Match-ups:

  • Kyler Murray QB Rating of 86.9 vs. Los Angeles Chargers Pass DVOA Defense of -4.8%
    The Chargers have 7 interceptions this year and 21 sacks. They are allowing 25.8 points per game.
  • James Conner vs. Los Angeles Chargers number 19 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 5.5 yards per carry against the the Los Angeles Chargers and 148.4 per game.
  • Justin Herbert QB Rating of 90.7 vs. Arizona Cardinals #25 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Cardinals defense has allowed 26.9 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 19 times and picked him off 7 times.
  • Austin Ekeler vs. Arizona Cardinals 12.9% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Cardinals are giving up 114.9 YPG on 4.6 per carry thus far this season.

Chargers/Cardinals Bettting Stats:

Chargers Against the spread: 5-3-0
Chargers Over/Under: 4-4-0

Cardinals Against the spread: 4-5-0
Cardinals Over/Under: 4-4-1

The best bet is Arizona Cardinals +3.0 and Under 48.

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