Buccaneers vs. Browns: Week 12 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 24 November 2022

The 3-7-0 Cleveland Browns host the 5-5-0 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland, Ohio. The Browns have a point spread of +3.0 with a money line of +155. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 42.5 points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Cleveland Browns

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.0)

Record: 5-5-0
Points Per Game: 18.3
Points Allowed Per Game: 18

Cleveland Browns (+3.0)

Record: 3-7-0
Points Per Game: 24
Points Allowed Per Game: 26.9

Cleveland Browns Offense:

The Browns are coached by Kevin Stefanski who has been with the team since 2020. They have a current season record of 3-7-0 after going 8-9 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Kevin Stefanski is no different.

Jacoby Brissett is the quarterback for the Browns. The 30-year-old NC State alum entered the league in 2016 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 10 games and thrown for 2398 yards with a completion percentage of 64.4 percent. Jacoby Brissett has thrown 11 touchdowns despite 5 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 90.7.

His main target will be Amari Cooper. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 28-year-old target. He has made 50 receptions to date on 81 targets, a catch percentage of 61.7%, for a total of 698 yards. Amari Cooper is averaging 14 yards per catch with 7 touchdowns thus far. Jacoby Brissett will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Browns running game is lead by the 27-year-old Nick Chubb. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 174 carries and rushed for 923 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 92.3 YPG, a number that you know Kevin Stefanski would love to see him exceed in this game. Nick Chubb has 11 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.

Overall, the Cleveland Browns offense ranks 4 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 15.7%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 5 with a Passing DVOA of 12.0%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 28.1%, ranking #7 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.595 with 22 Red Zone touchdowns in 37 attempts.

Cleveland Browns Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Browns have a Defense DVOA of 13.7%, ranking 31 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #28 at 9.5% and they’ll need them to show up against Tom Brady. The Kevin Stefanski-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 9.5%, #27 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Cade York who has made 16 of 21 field goals this season, a 76.2% field goal percentage, with a long of 58 yards. The Cleveland Browns fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense:

The Buccaneers are on the road for this one. Todd Bowles’s squad is 5-5-0 this season after going 13-4 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a betting line of -3.0 or you could bet them straight up at -175.

45-year-old Tom Brady will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2000 after playing his college days at Michigan. Tom Brady has a quarterback rating of 91.9 on 12 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He’s started 10 games and thrown for 2805yards, a completion percentage of 66.0.

Leonard Fournette is the lead back for the Buccaneers running game. The 27-year-old has taken 135 carries and rushed for 462 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 46.2 YPG and he has scored 3 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.

On the passing front, Tom Brady will look to target Mike Evans against the Todd Bowles defense. Mike Evans has 3 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 76 times and made 49 catches for 671 yards. Mike Evans has a catch percentage of 64.5% and his yards per reception is 13.7.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 2.2% which ranks at number 17 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 5.2%, the number 12 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 9 with a Rush DVOA total of 22.5%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 14 Red Zone touchdowns on 30 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.467.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Ryan Succop to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 54 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Ryan Succop has made 22 field goals on 54 attempts, a field goal percentage of 88.0%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Buccaneers with a Defensive DVOA of -10.0% which ranks at 8/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #28 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 9.5%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -4.5% DVOA which ranks at #27.

Key Match-ups:

  • Jacoby Brissett QB Rating of 90.7 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pass DVOA Defense of 5.2%
    The Buccaneers have 6 interceptions this year and 32 sacks. They are allowing 18 points per game.
  • Nick Chubb vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers number 9 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 4.5 yards per carry against the the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and 116.6 per game.
  • Tom Brady QB Rating of 91.9 vs. Cleveland Browns #28 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Browns defense has allowed 26.9 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 22 times and picked him off 3 times.
  • Leonard Fournette vs. Cleveland Browns 15.7% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Browns are giving up 135.1 YPG on 4.8 per carry thus far this season.

Buccaneers/Browns Bettting Stats:

Buccaneers Against the spread: 2-6-1
Buccaneers Over/Under: 2-7-0

Browns Against the spread: 4-4-0
Browns Over/Under: 5-2-1

The best bet is Cleveland Browns +3.0 and Under 42.5.

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