Bengals vs. Titans: Week 12 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 24 November 2022

The 7-3-0 Tennessee Titans host the 6-4-0 Cincinnati Bengals at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee. The Titans have a point spread of +3.0 with a money line of +127. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 42.5 points.

Cincinnati Bengals Tennessee Titans

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.0)

Record: 6-4-0
Points Per Game: 26.5
Points Allowed Per Game: 21.5

Tennessee Titans (+3.0)

Record: 7-3-0
Points Per Game: 19.3
Points Allowed Per Game: 18.5

Tennessee Titans Offense:

The Titans are coached by Mike Vrabel who has been with the team since 2018. They have a current season record of 7-3-0 after going 12-5 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Mike Vrabel is no different.

Ryan Tannehill is the quarterback for the Titans. The 34-year-old Texas A&M alum entered the league in 2012 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 8 games and thrown for 1685 yards with a completion percentage of 65.1 percent. Ryan Tannehill has thrown 10 touchdowns despite 4 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 97.9.

His main target will be Robert Woods. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 30-year-old target. He has made 30 receptions to date on 50 targets, a catch percentage of 60.0%, for a total of 335 yards. Robert Woods is averaging 11.2 yards per catch with 1 touchdowns thus far. Ryan Tannehill will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Titans running game is lead by the 28-year-old Derrick Henry. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 230 carries and rushed for 1010 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 101 YPG, a number that you know Mike Vrabel would love to see him exceed in this game. Derrick Henry has 10 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.

Overall, the Tennessee Titans offense ranks 18 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 0.0%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 18 with a Passing DVOA of -0.7%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 16.5%, ranking #12 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.741 with 20 Red Zone touchdowns in 27 attempts.

Tennessee Titans Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Titans have a Defense DVOA of -8.6%, ranking 9 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #7 at -7.7% and they’ll need them to show up against Joe Burrow. The Mike Vrabel-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -7.7%, #13 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Randy Bullock who has made 11 of 13 field goals this season, a 84.6% field goal percentage, with a long of 48 yards. The Tennessee Titans fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Cincinnati Bengals Offense:

The Bengals are on the road for this one. Zac Taylor’s squad is 6-4-0 this season after going 10-7 last year. He has been at the helm since 2019 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Cincinnati Bengals have a betting line of -3.0 or you could bet them straight up at -147.

26-year-old Joe Burrow will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2020 after playing his college days at LSU. Joe Burrow has a quarterback rating of 102.8 on 22 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. He’s started 10 games and thrown for 2890yards, a completion percentage of 69.1.

Joe Mixon is the lead back for the Bengals running game. The 26-year-old has taken 158 carries and rushed for 605 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 60.5 YPG and he has scored 6 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.

On the passing front, Joe Burrow will look to target Ja’Marr Chase against the Zac Taylor defense. Ja’Marr Chase has 6 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 74 times and made 47 catches for 605 yards. Ja’Marr Chase has a catch percentage of 63.5% and his yards per reception is 12.9.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Cincinnati Bengals offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 9.0% which ranks at number 8 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 11.1%, the number 6 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 10 with a Rush DVOA total of 20.2%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 24 Red Zone touchdowns on 32 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.75.

Cincinnati Bengals Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Evan McPherson to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 59 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Evan McPherson has made 14 field goals on 59 attempts, a field goal percentage of 77.8%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Bengals with a Defensive DVOA of -4.3% which ranks at 13/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #7 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -7.7%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -1.6% DVOA which ranks at #13.

Key Match-ups:

  • Ryan Tannehill QB Rating of 97.9 vs. Cincinnati Bengals Pass DVOA Defense of 11.1%
    The Bengals have 8 interceptions this year and 16 sacks. They are allowing 21.5 points per game.
  • Derrick Henry vs. Cincinnati Bengals number 10 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 4.4 yards per carry against the the Cincinnati Bengals and 117.1 per game.
  • Joe Burrow QB Rating of 102.8 vs. Tennessee Titans #7 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Titans defense has allowed 18.5 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 30 times and picked him off 9 times.
  • Joe Mixon vs. Tennessee Titans 2.5% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Titans are giving up 82.2 YPG on 3.9 per carry thus far this season.

Bengals/Titans Bettting Stats:

Bengals Against the spread: 6-3-0
Bengals Over/Under: 3-5-1

Titans Against the spread: 6-2-0
Titans Over/Under: 2-6-0

The best bet is Tennessee Titans +3.0 and Under 42.5.

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