The 3-6-0 Chicago Bears host the 2-6-0 Detroit Lions at Soldier Field in Chicago, Illinois. The Bears have a point spread of -3.0 with a money line of -150. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 48.5 points.
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Detroit Lions (+3.0)Record: 2-6-0 |
Chicago Bears (-3.0)Record: 3-6-0 |
Chicago Bears Offense:
The Bears are coached by Matt Eberflus who has been with the team since 2022. They have a current season record of 3-6-0 after going 6-11 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Matt Eberflus is no different.
Justin Fields is the quarterback for the Bears. The 23-year-old Ohio State alum entered the league in 2021 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 9 games and thrown for 1322 yards with a completion percentage of 58.8 percent. Justin Fields has thrown 10 touchdowns despite 6 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 85.
His main target will be Darnell Mooney. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 25-year-old target. He has made 32 receptions to date on 52 targets, a catch percentage of 61.5%, for a total of 407 yards. Darnell Mooney is averaging 12.7 yards per catch with 1 touchdowns thus far. Justin Fields will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Bears running game is lead by the 25-year-old David Montgomery. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 106 carries and rushed for 397 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 49.6 YPG, a number that you know Matt Eberflus would love to see him exceed in this game. David Montgomery has 2 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.
Overall, the Chicago Bears offense ranks 23 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -7.8%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 25 with a Passing DVOA of -7.1%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -7.2%, ranking #27 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.552 with 16 Red Zone touchdowns in 29 attempts.
Chicago Bears Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Bears have a Defense DVOA of 12.4%, ranking 31 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #31 at 9.2% and they’ll need them to show up against Jared Goff. The Matt Eberflus-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 9.2%, #30 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Cairo Santos who has made 13 of 13 field goals this season, a 100.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 51 yards. The Chicago Bears fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Detroit Lions Offense:
The Lions are on the road for this one. Dan Campbell’s squad is 2-6-0 this season after going 3-13-1 last year. He has been at the helm since 2021 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Detroit Lions have a betting line of +3.0 or you could bet them straight up at 130.
28-year-old Jared Goff will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2016 after playing his college days at California. Jared Goff has a quarterback rating of 91.8 on 14 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. He’s started 8 games and thrown for 2041yards, a completion percentage of 62.9.
D’Andre Swift is the lead back for the Lions running game. The 23-year-old has taken 34 carries and rushed for 247 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 49.4 YPG and he has scored 1 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.
On the passing front, Jared Goff will look to target Amon-Ra St. Brown against the Dan Campbell defense. Amon-Ra St. Brown has 3 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 59 times and made 39 catches for 399 yards. Amon-Ra St. Brown has a catch percentage of 66.1% and his yards per reception is 10.2.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Detroit Lions offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 4.6% which ranks at number 12 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -0.6%, the number 19 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 14 with a Rush DVOA total of 12.7%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 20 Red Zone touchdowns on 28 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.714.
Detroit Lions Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Michael Badgley to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 53 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Michael Badgley has made 8 field goals on 53 attempts, a field goal percentage of 100.0%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Lions with a Defensive DVOA of 9.9% which ranks at 26/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #31 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 9.2%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 6.6% DVOA which ranks at #30.
Key Match-ups:
- Justin Fields QB Rating of 85 vs. Detroit Lions Pass DVOA Defense of -0.6%
The Lions have 5 interceptions this year and 12 sacks. They are allowing 29.3 points per game. - David Montgomery vs. Detroit Lions number 14 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 5 yards per carry against the the Detroit Lions and 148.8 per game. - Jared Goff QB Rating of 91.8 vs. Chicago Bears #31 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Bears defense has allowed 24 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 13 times and picked him off 9 times. - D’Andre Swift vs. Chicago Bears 19.6% DVOA Rush Defense
The Bears are giving up 147.2 YPG on 4.9 per carry thus far this season.
Lions/Bears Bettting Stats:
Lions Against the spread: 4-4-0
Lions Over/Under: 5-3-0
Bears Against the spread: 4-4-1
Bears Over/Under: 5-4-0
The best bet is Detroit Lions +3.0 and Over 48.5.