Browns vs. Dolphins: Week 10 Betting Preview & Predictions

by | 9 November 2022

The 6-3-0 Miami Dolphins host the 3-5-0 Cleveland Browns at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. The Dolphins have a point spread of -3.5 with a money line of -190. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 49 points.

Cleveland Browns Miami Dolphins

Cleveland Browns (+3.5)

Record: 3-5-0
Points Per Game: 25
Points Allowed Per Game: 24.9

Miami Dolphins (-3.5)

Record: 6-3-0
Points Per Game: 23.7
Points Allowed Per Game: 24.9

Miami Dolphins Offense:

The Dolphins are coached by Mike McDaniel who has been with the team since 2022. They have a current season record of 6-3-0 after going 9-8 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Mike McDaniel is no different.

Tua Tagovailoa is the quarterback for the Dolphins. The 24-year-old Alabama alum entered the league in 2020 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 7 games and thrown for 1980 yards with a completion percentage of 69.9 percent. Tua Tagovailoa has thrown 15 touchdowns despite 3 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 115.9.

His main target will be Tyreek Hill. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 28-year-old target. He has made 76 receptions to date on 100 targets, a catch percentage of 76.0%, for a total of 1104 yards. Tyreek Hill is averaging 14.5 yards per catch with 3 touchdowns thus far. Tua Tagovailoa will be looking to connect with him for more here.

The Dolphins running game is lead by the 30-year-old Raheem Mostert. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 110 carries and rushed for 478 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 53.1 YPG, a number that you know Mike McDaniel would love to see him exceed in this game. Raheem Mostert has 2 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.

Overall, the Miami Dolphins offense ranks 2 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 21.9%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 2 with a Passing DVOA of 14.5%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 49.2%, ranking #1 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.69 with 20 Red Zone touchdowns in 29 attempts.

Miami Dolphins Defense/Special Teams:

On the defensive end, the Dolphins have a Defense DVOA of 10.1%, ranking 27 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #28 at 7.8% and they’ll need them to show up against Jacoby Brissett. The Mike McDaniel-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 7.8%, #31 out of thirty two teams.

Their kicker is Jason Sanders who has made 11 of 15 field goals this season, a 73.3% field goal percentage, with a long of 49 yards. The Miami Dolphins fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.

Cleveland Browns Offense:

The Browns are on the road for this one. Kevin Stefanski’s squad is 3-5-0 this season after going 8-9 last year. He has been at the helm since 2020 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Cleveland Browns have a betting line of +3.5 or you could bet them straight up at 165.

30-year-old Jacoby Brissett will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2016 after playing his college days at NC State. Jacoby Brissett has a quarterback rating of 86.8 on 7 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. He’s started 8 games and thrown for 1862yards, a completion percentage of 63.9.

Nick Chubb is the lead back for the Browns running game. The 27-year-old has taken 149 carries and rushed for 841 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 105.1 YPG and he has scored 10 touchdowns with 0 fumbles.

On the passing front, Jacoby Brissett will look to target Amari Cooper against the Kevin Stefanski defense. Amari Cooper has 5 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 66 times and made 39 catches for 553 yards. Amari Cooper has a catch percentage of 59.1% and his yards per reception is 14.2.

According to FootballOutsiders, the Cleveland Browns offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 16.2% which ranks at number 5 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 9.1%, the number 7 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 8 with a Rush DVOA total of 22.5%.

If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 19 Red Zone touchdowns on 31 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.613.

Cleveland Browns Defense/Special Teams:

The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Cade York to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 58 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Cade York has made 14 field goals on 58 attempts, a field goal percentage of 77.8%.

The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Browns with a Defensive DVOA of 7.6% which ranks at 24/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.

Against the pass they rank at #28 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 7.8%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 3.3% DVOA which ranks at #31.

Key Match-ups:

  • Tua Tagovailoa QB Rating of 115.9 vs. Cleveland Browns Pass DVOA Defense of 9.1%
    The Browns have 3 interceptions this year and 19 sacks. They are allowing 24.9 points per game.
  • Raheem Mostert vs. Cleveland Browns number 8 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
    Opponents are averaging 4.6 yards per carry against the the Cleveland Browns and 123.1 per game.
  • Jacoby Brissett QB Rating of 86.8 vs. Miami Dolphins #28 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
    The Dolphins defense has allowed 24.9 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 17 times and picked him off 4 times.
  • Nick Chubb vs. Miami Dolphins 24.2% DVOA Rush Defense
    The Dolphins are giving up 117.4 YPG on 4.6 per carry thus far this season.

Browns/Dolphins Bettting Stats:

Browns Against the spread: 4-4-0
Browns Over/Under: 5-2-1

Dolphins Against the spread: 4-5-0
Dolphins Over/Under: 4-5-0

The best bet is Cleveland Browns +3.5 and Over 49.