The 5-3-0 Tennessee Titans host the 3-5-0 Denver Broncos at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee. The Titans have a point spread of -2.5 with a money line of -140. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 37 points.
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Denver Broncos (+2.5)Record: 3-5-0 |
Tennessee Titans (-2.5)Record: 5-3-0 |
Tennessee Titans Offense:
The Titans are coached by Mike Vrabel who has been with the team since 2018. They have a current season record of 5-3-0 after going 12-5 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Mike Vrabel is no different.
Ryan Tannehill is the quarterback for the Titans. The 34-year-old Texas A&M alum entered the league in 2012 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 6 games and thrown for 1097 yards with a completion percentage of 65.1 percent. Ryan Tannehill has thrown 6 touchdowns despite 3 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 92.8.
His main target will be Robert Woods. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 30-year-old target. He has made 22 receptions to date on 36 targets, a catch percentage of 61.1%, for a total of 256 yards. Robert Woods is averaging 11.6 yards per catch with 1 touchdowns thus far. Ryan Tannehill will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Titans running game is lead by the 28-year-old Derrick Henry. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 183 carries and rushed for 870 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 108.8 YPG, a number that you know Mike Vrabel would love to see him exceed in this game. Derrick Henry has 9 touchdowns this season and 1 fumbles.
Overall, the Tennessee Titans offense ranks 22 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -7.0%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 24 with a Passing DVOA of -6.3%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -4.1%, ranking #25 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.789 with 15 Red Zone touchdowns in 19 attempts.
Tennessee Titans Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Titans have a Defense DVOA of -5.0%, ranking 10 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #12 at -2.6% and they’ll need them to show up against Russell Wilson. The Mike Vrabel-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -2.6%, #15 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Randy Bullock who has made 10 of 12 field goals this season, a 83.3% field goal percentage, with a long of 48 yards. The Tennessee Titans fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Denver Broncos Offense:
The Broncos are on the road for this one. Nathaniel Hackett’s squad is 3-5-0 this season after going 7-10 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Denver Broncos have a betting line of +2.5 or you could bet them straight up at 120.
34-year-old Russell Wilson will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2012 after playing his college days at Wisconsin. Russell Wilson has a quarterback rating of 83.5 on 6 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He’s started 7 games and thrown for 1694yards, a completion percentage of 58.8.
Melvin Gordon is the lead back for the Broncos running game. The 29-year-old has taken 75 carries and rushed for 263 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 32.9 YPG and he has scored 2 touchdowns with 4 fumbles.
On the passing front, Russell Wilson will look to target Courtland Sutton against the Nathaniel Hackett defense. Courtland Sutton has 1 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 62 times and made 35 catches for 467 yards. Courtland Sutton has a catch percentage of 56.5% and his yards per reception is 13.3.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Denver Broncos offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -13.6% which ranks at number 27 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -5.2%, the number 23 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 23 with a Rush DVOA total of -2.2%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 7 Red Zone touchdowns on 20 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.35.
Denver Broncos Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Brandon McManus to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 55 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Brandon McManus has made 15 field goals on 55 attempts, a field goal percentage of 78.9%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Broncos with a Defensive DVOA of -18.4% which ranks at 2/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #12 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -2.6%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -8.9% DVOA which ranks at #15.
Key Match-ups:
- Ryan Tannehill QB Rating of 92.8 vs. Denver Broncos Pass DVOA Defense of -5.2%
The Broncos have 6 interceptions this year and 24 sacks. They are allowing 16.5 points per game. - Derrick Henry vs. Denver Broncos number 23 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 4.9 yards per carry against the the Denver Broncos and 122.6 per game. - Russell Wilson QB Rating of 83.5 vs. Tennessee Titans #12 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Titans defense has allowed 19.8 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 23 times and picked him off 8 times. - Melvin Gordon vs. Tennessee Titans 5.1% DVOA Rush Defense
The Titans are giving up 87.6 YPG on 4.1 per carry thus far this season.
Broncos/Titans Bettting Stats:
Broncos Against the spread: 3-5-0
Broncos Over/Under: 1-7-0
Titans Against the spread: 6-2-0
Titans Over/Under: 2-6-0
The best bet is Denver Broncos +2.5 and Under 37.