The 4-4-0 Washington Commanders host the 6-1-0 Minnesota Vikings at FedExField in Landover, Maryland. The Commanders have a point spread of +4 with a money line of +160. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 43.5 points.
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Minnesota Vikings (-4)Record: 6-1-0 |
Washington Commanders (+4)Record: 4-4-0 |
Washington Commanders Offense:
The Commanders are coached by Ron Rivera who has been with the team since 2020. They have a current season record of 4-4-0 after going 7-10 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Ron Rivera is no different.
Taylor Heinicke is the quarterback for the Commanders. The 29-year-old Old Dominion alum entered the league in 2015 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 2 games and thrown for 480 yards with a completion percentage of 67.2 percent. Taylor Heinicke has thrown 3 touchdowns despite 2 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 91.9.
His main target will be Terry McLaurin. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 27-year-old target. He has made 33 receptions to date on 53 targets, a catch percentage of 62.3%, for a total of 553 yards. Terry McLaurin is averaging 16.8 yards per catch with 2 touchdowns thus far. Taylor Heinicke will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Commanders running game is lead by the 24-year-old Antonio Gibson. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 78 carries and rushed for 292 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 36.5 YPG, a number that you know Ron Rivera would love to see him exceed in this game. Antonio Gibson has 2 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.
Overall, the Washington Commanders offense ranks 30 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at -15.5%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 31 with a Passing DVOA of -13.6%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of -7.2%, ranking #28 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.524 with 11 Red Zone touchdowns in 21 attempts.
Washington Commanders Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Commanders have a Defense DVOA of -0.1%, ranking 15 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #14 at -0.9% and they’ll need them to show up against Kirk Cousins. The Ron Rivera-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of -0.9%, #28 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Joey Slye who has made 8 of 10 field goals this season, a 80.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 50 yards. The Washington Commanders fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Minnesota Vikings Offense:
The Vikings are on the road for this one. Kevin O’Connell’s squad is 6-1-0 this season after going 8-9 last year. He has been at the helm since 2022 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Minnesota Vikings have a betting line of -4 or you could bet them straight up at -180.
34-year-old Kirk Cousins will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2012 after playing his college days at Michigan State. Kirk Cousins has a quarterback rating of 90.7 on 11 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. He’s started 7 games and thrown for 1734yards, a completion percentage of 66.3.
Dalvin Cook is the lead back for the Vikings running game. The 27-year-old has taken 114 carries and rushed for 561 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 80.1 YPG and he has scored 5 touchdowns with 1 fumbles.
On the passing front, Kirk Cousins will look to target Justin Jefferson against the Kevin O’Connell defense. Justin Jefferson has 2 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 71 times and made 52 catches for 752 yards. Justin Jefferson has a catch percentage of 73.2% and his yards per reception is 14.5.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Minnesota Vikings offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of 5.9% which ranks at number 11 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is 5.7%, the number 8 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 18 with a Rush DVOA total of 9.0%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 18 Red Zone touchdowns on 27 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.667.
Minnesota Vikings Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Greg Joseph to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 56 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Greg Joseph has made 9 field goals on 56 attempts, a field goal percentage of 64.3%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Vikings with a Defensive DVOA of 4.1% which ranks at 21/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #14 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of -0.9%. Comparatively, the run defense has a 2.8% DVOA which ranks at #28.
Key Match-ups:
- Taylor Heinicke QB Rating of 91.9 vs. Minnesota Vikings Pass DVOA Defense of 5.7%
The Vikings have 7 interceptions this year and 21 sacks. They are allowing 20.6 points per game. - Antonio Gibson vs. Minnesota Vikings number 18 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 4.2 yards per carry against the the Minnesota Vikings and 107.6 per game. - Kirk Cousins QB Rating of 90.7 vs. Washington Commanders #14 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Commanders defense has allowed 21.5 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 21 times and picked him off 2 times. - Dalvin Cook vs. Washington Commanders 14.8% DVOA Rush Defense
The Commanders are giving up 120.4 YPG on 4.6 per carry thus far this season.
Vikings/Commanders Bettting Stats:
Vikings Against the spread: 3-4-0
Vikings Over/Under: 4-3-0
Commanders Against the spread: 4-4-0
Commanders Over/Under: 3-5-0
The best bet is Minnesota Vikings -4 and Under 43.5.