The 5-2-0 Kansas City Chiefs host the 5-2-0 Tennessee Titans at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. The Chiefs have a point spread of -13 with a money line of -600. The over/under total on the game is currently set at 46.5 points.
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Tennessee Titans (+13)Record: 5-2-0 |
Kansas City Chiefs (-13)Record: 5-2-0 |
Kansas City Chiefs Offense:
The Chiefs are coached by Andy Reid who has been with the team since 2013. They have a current season record of 5-2-0 after going 12-5 last season. All coaches want big games from their offense and certainly Andy Reid is no different.
Patrick Mahomes is the quarterback for the Chiefs. The 27-year-old Texas Tech alum entered the league in 2017 and is looking for a win in front of the home crowd here. Thus far this season he has started 7 games and thrown for 2159 yards with a completion percentage of 66.9 percent. Patrick Mahomes has thrown 20 touchdowns despite 5 interceptions and has a QB Rating of 109.5.
His main target will be JuJu Smith-Schuster. The home crowd would especially love to see some fireworks from the 26-year-old target. He has made 34 receptions to date on 48 targets, a catch percentage of 70.8%, for a total of 494 yards. JuJu Smith-Schuster is averaging 14.5 yards per catch with 2 touchdowns thus far. Patrick Mahomes will be looking to connect with him for more here.
The Chiefs running game is lead by the 23-year-old Clyde Edwards-Helaire. A big game from him could be the key to controlling the clock here. He’s taken 65 carries and rushed for 288 yards thus far this season. His yards per game currently sits at 41.1 YPG, a number that you know Andy Reid would love to see him exceed in this game. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has 3 touchdowns this season and 0 fumbles.
Overall, the Kansas City Chiefs offense ranks 1 out of 32 teams in Offense DVOA at 25.7%, per FootballOutsiders. The passing game ranks at number 1 with a Passing DVOA of 18.9%. The running game has a Rush DVOA of 42.7%, ranking #1 in the league. This season they have a Red Zone success rate of 0.767 with 23 Red Zone touchdowns in 30 attempts.
Kansas City Chiefs Defense/Special Teams:
On the defensive end, the Chiefs have a Defense DVOA of 6.2%, ranking 24 in the league. Specifically against the pass they rank #27 at 5.4% and they’ll need them to show up against Ryan Tannehill. The Andy Reid-led team has a Defense against the rush DVOA of 5.4%, #26 out of thirty two teams.
Their kicker is Harrison Butker who has made 3 of 5 field goals this season, a 60.0% field goal percentage, with a long of 62 yards. The Kansas City Chiefs fans don’t want to see him too much, but it’s good to know he can hit another one if needed.
Tennessee Titans Offense:
The Titans are on the road for this one. Mike Vrabel’s squad is 5-2-0 this season after going 12-5 last year. He has been at the helm since 2018 and is looking to grab a road win here. The Tennessee Titans have a betting line of +13 or you could bet them straight up at +460.
34-year-old Ryan Tannehill will be under center for this one. He entered the league in 2012 after playing his college days at Texas A&M. Ryan Tannehill has a quarterback rating of 92.8 on 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He’s started 6 games and thrown for 1097yards, a completion percentage of 65.1.
Derrick Henry is the lead back for the Titans running game. The 28-year-old has taken 166 carries and rushed for 755 yards this season. His yards per game currently sits at 107.9 YPG and he has scored 7 touchdowns with 1 fumbles.
On the passing front, Ryan Tannehill will look to target Robert Woods against the Mike Vrabel defense. Robert Woods has 1 touchdowns thus far this season and his team will be looking for more here. On the year, he’s been targeted 34 times and made 22 catches for 256 yards. Robert Woods has a catch percentage of 64.7% and his yards per reception is 11.6.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Tennessee Titans offense has a Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of -7.5% which ranks at number 22 out of thirty two teams. The Passing DVOA is -6.8%, the number 26 ranked pass offense in the league. When running the ball, their Rush DVOA ranks at 19 with a Rush DVOA total of 2.1%.
If they hope to win on the road, they’ll need to do well in the Red Zone. For the year, they have scored 13 Red Zone touchdowns on 17 attempts, a Red Zone percentage of 0.765.
Tennessee Titans Defense/Special Teams:
The team will be looking for touchdowns, but they have Randy Bullock to knock down field goals if needed. His season long is a 48 yarder which is always helpful on the road. Randy Bullock has made 9 field goals on 48 attempts, a field goal percentage of 81.8%.
The advanced stats from Football Outsiders have the Titans with a Defensive DVOA of -4.5% which ranks at 10/32 in the NFL. They are a different team against the run and the pass though.
Against the pass they rank at #27 out of 32 teams with a Pass DVOA of 5.4%. Comparatively, the run defense has a -1.6% DVOA which ranks at #26.
Key Match-ups:
- Patrick Mahomes QB Rating of 109.5 vs. Tennessee Titans Pass DVOA Defense of -6.8%
The Titans have 7 interceptions this year and 19 sacks. They are allowing 19.7 points per game. - Clyde Edwards-Helaire vs. Tennessee Titans number 19 ranked DVOA Rush Defense
Opponents are averaging 4.2 yards per carry against the the Tennessee Titans and 89.1 per game. - Ryan Tannehill QB Rating of 92.8 vs. Kansas City Chiefs #27 ranked DVOA Pass Defense
The Chiefs defense has allowed 24.6 points per game thus far this season. They have sacked the quarterback 19 times and picked him off 3 times. - Derrick Henry vs. Kansas City Chiefs 12.6% DVOA Rush Defense
The Chiefs are giving up 92 YPG on 4.2 per carry thus far this season.
Titans/Chiefs Bettting Stats:
Titans Against the spread: 5-2-0
Titans Over/Under: 2-5-0
Chiefs Against the spread: 3-4-0
Chiefs Over/Under: 4-3-0
The best bet is Tennessee Titans +13 and Under 46.5.